Today's AE Plays / All playsAE
Every AE play
Newest first. Every play, graded.
AE's record →| Day | League | Play | Result | Units | Post |
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| Thu, Nov 12 | NFL | Commanders ML (+120) at GiantsCommanders at Giants · Thu, Nov 12, 5:15 PM PTAE's analysisThe forecast for Thursday at MetLife has rain chances near 74 percent during the game, with a northeast wind of 11 to 13 mph and gusts in the low 20s. That hurts a Giants offense that runs mostly through the air. J.J. McCarthy is 2-0 as their starter and makes his first home start through a hip pointer, while New York's running game has been a net negative all season. Washington has the weapon that likes a mud bath. When these teams tied 27-27 in overtime on October 11, Jayden Daniels ran nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns, and the Commanders ran for 202 yards as a team. Since then the Giants lost Tremaine Edmunds to a torn chest muscle and put him on injured reserve October 24, so there's one less linebacker to chase Daniels when he leaves the pocket. Washington's defense has allowed 23, 10 and 20 points over its last three games and is plus seven in turnovers, which helps on a night when the ball will handle like a bar of soap at a car wash. The real worry is the offensive line. Laremy Tunsil is out, Nick Allegretti snaps in place of Lucas Patrick, and this pass rush sacked Daniels five times in October and had seven sacks in Philadelphia on Sunday. We took +120 at DraftKings knowing that, because rain takes away New York's best weapon and leaves Washington's alone. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL.N0V12.2026nyCommandersGiantsWashington Commanders ML (+120)74%103+7ydsRAINCHANCEDANIELSRANVSCOMMANDERSAT METLIFEGIANTSOCT11TURNOVERMARGIN | Open | — | Post → |
| Thu, Nov 12 | COLLEGE FOOTBALL | Under 50.5 (-108) at South Florida BullsMemphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls · Thu, Nov 12, 5:00 PM PT · Line 50.5AE's analysisThursday night in Tampa, South Florida's offense is the slow, short-handed half of the matchup, and that is where our Under 50.5 at -108 with BetMGM starts. The Bulls run 58.9 plays a game at 5.37 yards a snap and have scored 21.8 a game against FBS opponents. Michael Van Buren Jr. missed last Friday's 20-17 loss at East Carolina. Luke Kromenhoek started and went 17 of 21 for 179 yards, the Bulls converted 1 of 10 third downs, and lead back D.J. Crowther left in the fourth quarter after 111 rushing yards. Brian Hartline has given no update on either player this week. The USF defense holds up the other end: 15.1 points allowed per game, 4.84 yards per play, no visitor above 17 at Raymond James, and four FBS home games that finished at 28, 30, 31 and 40 total points. Memphis is the real threat, a 37.6-point offense running 71.3 plays a game off a 12-day bye, and if Marcus Stokes finds a rhythm this number can go in a hurry. Still, the Tigers' trips to UNLV, Boise State and Tulane produced 27, 20 and 17. We see Memphis winning on the scoreboard while USF's drives move like a cruise ship trying to parallel park. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. COLLEGEFOOTBALL .NOV12.2026MemphisSouth FloridaUnder 50.5 (-108)1 of 101720maxptsBULLS3RDBULLSALLOWTIGERSSCOREDDOWNSFRIDAYATHOMEATBOISESTATE | Open | — | Post → |
| Thu, Nov 12 | NHL | Jets +1.5 (-160) at StarsJets at Stars · Thu, Nov 12, 5:10 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisDallas has spent this season winning the way people parallel park a minivan: carefully, slowly and rarely with room to spare. The Stars are 10-5-2, but only five of their 17 games have ended with them ahead by two or more, and only three of their ten home games. All five of those came with Miro Heiskanen in the lineup. He is ruled out tonight with an upper-body injury, which takes his 24:53 a night off the ice, and Matt Duchene is still out too. In the two games since Heiskanen got hurt on Nov. 3, Dallas lost in a shootout at Columbus and beat San Jose 4-3. An offense scoring 2.82 goals a game does not suddenly start running teams out of the building without its best defenseman. Winnipeg got Josh Morrissey back on Nov. 10 after he missed 14 games, and the Jets are 4-0-1 when he dresses this season, with no loss by more than a goal. The October 22 meeting in Dallas went 3-2 in overtime. That is why we took Winnipeg +1.5 at -160 at BetMGM. The real danger is the Jets crease: projected starter Stuart Skinner sits at .883, and a 73.7% penalty kill against a 27.5% Dallas power play is the quickest way to a two-goal Stars night. Even so, we expect Dallas to stick to its usual script, which is tight, low on oxygen and settled late. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.NOV12,2026JetsStarsWinnipeg Jets +1.5 (-160)2out3 of 104-3STARS'HEISKANENSTARS HOMESTARS'LONE WINAND DUCHENEGAMES WONBY 2+SINCEINJURY | Open | — | Post → |
| Wed, Nov 11 | NBA | Wizards +3.5 (-110) at PacersWashington Wizards at Indiana Pacers · Wed, Nov 11, 4:00 PM PT · Line 3.5AE's analysisAnthony Davis missed two games with a sprained right ankle, then went to Detroit on Monday and made the injury look like a clerical error: 44 points on 16-of-21 shooting and 13 rebounds in 34 minutes. Bilal Coulibaly is also off Washington's injury report after sitting out that game with a hand issue. Indiana's injury list is going the wrong way. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a left hamstring strain, and Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are out long term. T.J. McConnell is questionable with a hamstring of his own and has played 9 and 8 minutes in his two games back. That leaves Andrew Nembhard and rookie Braden Smith running the offense while Pascal Siakam does the heavy lifting. Home hasn't helped either: the Pacers are 0-4 at Gainbridge, a building they've treated like a short-term rental, and 1-7 over their last eight. The real worry is the schedule. This is Washington's fourth game in six nights and the last stop of a road trip. The Wizards host Detroit tomorrow, while Indiana doesn't play again until Friday. Tired legs in the fourth quarter are how this goes wrong, which is why we took Washington +3.5 at -110 at FanDuel instead of needing an outright win. If this ends as a close loss on late free throws, we still cash. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.NOV11.2026WizardsPacersWashington Wizards +3.55 (-110)44 PTS0-43outWIZARDS'PACERSATHOMEPACERSROTATIONDAVISMON | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Nov 11 | NBA | Rockets ML (-215) vs WarriorsGolden State Warriors at Houston Rockets · Wed, Nov 11, 6:30 PM PTAE's analysisGolden State comes into Houston with five players ruled out: Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II, Brandon Williams and Kristaps Porzingis. Will Richard is questionable with a torn thumb ligament. Most of the wing and guard depth is gone, and the frontcourt comes down to Draymond Green and Al Horford. That is a problem against a Houston team that grabbed 15 offensive rebounds against Denver on Monday without Clint Capela or Steven Adams. Oscar Tshiebwe came off the injury report Tuesday, so Alperen Sengun has a backup again. The Rockets are 5-1 at Toyota Center, and all five wins came by double digits, including Oklahoma City by 21 and Boston by 16. Both teams are 8-3 and the Warriors' eight-game streak is real. Still, their average margin drops from +9.2 to +5.0 once you take out Monday's 138-87 win over a Pelicans team missing Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III. The real threat is Stephen Curry. He is averaging 30.6 points, played only 21 minutes Monday, and leads a team that puts up nearly 41 threes a night. All three meetings last season were decided by four points or fewer. We took Houston at -215 at BetRivers because one guy can win a quarter, but over 48 minutes a five-man rotation running on fumes has a lot of floor to cover. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.NOV11.2026WarriorsRocketsHouston Rockets ML (-215)2 bigs5-15outWARRIORSROCKETSATHOMEWARRIORSPLAYERSHAVELEFT | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Nov 10 | CFB | Bowling Green Falcons ML (-190) vs Kent State Golden FlashesKent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons · Tue, Nov 10, 4:00 PM PTAE's analysisKent State has played five road games this season and scored 22 points in all of them combined, including 7 at Western Michigan and 10 in a 31-10 loss at Sacramento State on Oct. 30. The Golden Flashes are last in FBS at 14.3 points per game, and they can't fall back on the run game: 99.2 rushing yards a game at 3.0 a carry. That makes our Bowling Green moneyline at -190 at BetRivers a matchup read. The Falcons' defense gives up yards on the ground (212 a game), which is the one thing Kent State can't take advantage of. Through the air it's a different defense: 10th nationally at 168.8 passing yards allowed, with 22 sacks, nine from Myles Bradley. That leaves Dru DeShields, completing 55.8 percent, throwing into the strongest part of the Falcons' defense. Even when Kent State moves the ball, the drive tends to die: a 59.3 percent red zone rate, also last in the country, and a minus-7 turnover margin that includes five giveaways in that Sacramento State loss. Kent State's offense is a road trip with no destination. Bowling Green is 2-7 with three straight losses, but the Falcons have outscored MAC opponents 127-116 while Kent State sits at 88-115. The real worry is leading rusher Austyn Dendy, who has a fractured hand, missed the Oct. 31 game and has no confirmed status for tonight. Against an offense this allergic to the end zone, the home side needs only an ordinary night. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. COLLEGEFOOTBALL .NOV10.2026Kent StateBowling GreenBowling Green Falcons ML (-19o)14.3 pPPG-722sacksGOLDENFLASHESGOLDENFLASHESFALCONSDEFENSELASTINFBSTURNOVERMARGIN | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Nov 10 | NHL | Under 6.5 (-120) at Ottawa SenatorsWashington Capitals at Ottawa Senators · Tue, Nov 10, 4:00 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisWashington games have been fireworks, with 10 of 15 clearing 6.5, but the fuse looks short. The Capitals average 27.8 shots and 3.53 goals a game this season. That works out to about 12.7 percent shooting, a rate that usually comes back to earth like a dropped glove. Ottawa takes just 25.7 shots a night and is still without left wings William Eklund, Warren Foegele and Andre Burakovsky, so the attack leans hard on its top guys. Only 6 of the Senators' 18 games have gone over 6.5. In goal, Logan Thompson is at .888 this season against a .910 career mark, and Ottawa has been his favorite opponent: 6-1-1 with a .929 in eight career games. At the other end, Linus Ullmark was 7-1-0 with a .945 before missing eight games. He came off injured reserve Sunday and practiced fully Monday. He is expected to start but has not been confirmed, and that is the hinge. If Ottawa gives Samuel Ersson (.890 this season) one more night, this total loses much of its appeal. We took the Under 6.5 at -120 at BetMGM. With Ullmark in the crease, even a 4-2 final lands in our column instead of getting its money back. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL .NOV 10.2026WASHINGTONapitaCapitalsSenatorsUnder 6.5 (-120)6 of 183out.945save%SENATORSSENATORSSENATORS!GAMESOVER6.5LEFTWINGSULLMARK | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Nov 9 | NBA | Hawks ML (+112) vs LakersLos Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks · Mon, Nov 9, 4:00 PM PTAE's analysisThe Lakers reach Atlanta on the second night of a road back-to-back, and the player who usually makes that bearable is a question mark. Luka Doncic, averaging 40.1 points through nine games, sat Sunday's 121-116 win at Detroit with lower back tightness. It's the second time this season the back has cost him a game, and as of Monday morning the Lakers still hadn't filed a report for this one. Austin Reaves covered for him with 43 points on 14-of-27 shooting. Quentin Grimes, who started in Doncic's spot, left with a finger injury, and his status for tonight is also unclear. Atlanta spent Sunday on the couch. The Hawks last played Saturday, when Jalen Johnson came back from a three-game ankle absence and put up 30 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists against Brooklyn. They lead the league in field goal attempts and second-chance points, and the Lakers rank 28th in rebounding. That's a lot of loose balls for legs that just got off a plane. We took the Hawks at +112 at BetRivers. The real risk is the afternoon injury report: if Doncic is cleared, this is a different game. Until then, we want the rested home team with its best player back, not a road roster held together by athletic tape and a boarding pass. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.NOV09.2026WGELESLAKERSLakersHawksAtlanta Hawks ML (+112)2nd night3028th of 30ptsLAKERSHAWKS'JOHNSONLAKERSBACK-TO-BACKINRETURNREBOUNDING | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Nov 9 | NBA | Under 215.5 (-110) at Charlotte HornetsCleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets · Mon, Nov 9, 4:00 PM PT · Line 215.5AE's analysisCharlotte has been scoring like it gets billed by the basket. Through ten games the Hornets are last in the league at 96.3 points a game, with a 99.7 offensive rating, 28.8 percent from three and a 96.7 pace. They did all that with Brandon Miller (20.6 a game) and Dennis Schroder available. Monday both are out, and so are Kon Knueppel and Grant Williams, with Moussa Diabate questionable. That leaves most of the shot creation to Naz Reid and Coby White, who missed the first seven games with a calf injury and went 1 of 8 against Boston on Friday. Charlotte usually sets the ceiling in its own games. Its ten totals average 206.5 and seven stayed under 214.5. Even its three blowout losses, to Atlanta, Detroit and Boston, finished at 209, 215 and 199. Cleveland comes in on its third game in four nights to open a three-game road trip. Sam Merrill and Jaylon Tyson are out, Jarrett Allen is questionable with a knee contusion, and the Cavaliers just scored 97 against New York. The real pushback is Cleveland's own scoreboard: Cavaliers games average 231.1 and eight of ten went past 214.5, so a Charlotte shooting thaw is how this goes over. We took Under 215.5 at -110 at BetRivers. Tired legs against a lineup running on spare parts should keep this one slow. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.NOV09.2026HORNETSCavaliersHornetsUnder 215.5 (-110)96.3 pPPG28.8%4 outHORNETSHORNETSHORNETSROTATIONLASTINNBAFROMTHREE | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Nov 8 | NBA | Mavericks ML (-360) vs NetsBrooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks · Sun, Nov 8, 4:30 PM PTAE's analysisBrooklyn arrives in Dallas less than a day after coughing up a 17 point lead in a 124-121 loss at Atlanta, a night when the Nets handled the ball like a hot casserole dish and gave it away 22 times. That was with Mikel Brown Jr., who had 18 points in 25 minutes. He has not been cleared for back-to-backs, per coach Jordi Fernandez, so he sits, and Egor Demin remains out with a right leg bone bruise. That leaves Nolan Traore steering the league's 25th ranked offense on tired legs, with a guard depth chart that now fits on a Post-it. Dallas last played Friday, pulling away from Utah 112-100 behind a 32-19 third quarter and 21 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists from Cooper Flagg. Flagg and Kyrie Irving carry no injury tag, and the season net ratings, Dallas +1.1 and Brooklyn -5.9, were seven points per 100 possessions apart before the schedule got involved. Dereck Lively II is out, so Day'Ron Sharpe, fresh off a triple-double, working a leaky Dallas glass is the real way this goes sideways. We took Dallas at -360 at BetRivers, on the moneyline on purpose: the Mavericks host Indiana Monday, and a comfortable fourth quarter could get very bench-heavy. All we need is a win over a team running on fumes. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA·NOV08.2026NetsMavericksDallas Mavericks moneyline(-360)22pts25thNETSTURNOVERSMAVERICKSNETNETSOFFENSELAST NIGHTRATING EDGE | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Nov 8 | NFL | New York Giants ML (-148) at Philadelphia EaglesNew York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles · Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PTAE's analysisJoe Milton III makes his first NFL start after Philadelphia signed him off Dallas' practice squad on Oct. 16, and his career line reads 37 of 53, 424 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions. He inherits the league's last-ranked offense at 265.3 yards per game and 4.4 per play, behind a pocket with the shelf life of gas station sushi: in the four games without Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens, the Eagles allowed pressure in 2.40 seconds on average, fastest in the NFL. DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks and Britain Covey are out, so Hollywood Brown, rookie Makai Lemon and Dallas Goedert catch whatever the cannon sends. The Giants, whom we took at -148 at FanDuel, arrive off a bye under John Harbaugh, 15-3 after those, with Malik Nabers on four straight 100-yard games and a Philly secondary missing Jonathan Jones and Michael Carter II. New York has baggage: 13 straight losses in this building, Cam Skattebo doubtful with Tyrone Tracy on IR, J.J. McCarthy with 49 attempts in this offense, and a run defense ranked 26th at 128.1 yards a game. Saquon Barkley is the way in, but a hamstring and back limited him Thursday and Friday, and he hasn't topped 14 touches in either of his last two. One back can only carry so much furniture. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL .NOV 08.2026nyGiantsEaglesNew York Giants ML (-148)1st start32nd of 32gamesGIANTS'NABERSEAGLESQBMILTONEAGLESOFFENSE100-YARDSTREAK | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Nov 8 | NFL | Washington Commanders +4.5 (+100) vs Los Angeles RamsLos Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders · Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT · Line 4.5AE's analysisMatthew Stafford's four interceptions against the blitz are tied for the most in the league this season, and Sunday he meets a defense sending extra rushers at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Washington has three giveaways all year, tied for the fewest, and Jayden Daniels has yet to throw an interception in five games. He has also run 27 times for 236 yards, and the Rams front he's running at is missing Kobie Turner and Poona Ford, both on injured reserve. Behind them, Jaylen Watson is done for the year and Trent McDuffie (back) sat all three practices and carries a questionable tag into a game whose inactives weren't out when we wrote this. The Rams rank 27th in explosive-play rate, Davante Adams is on IR, and four of their eight games have been settled by four points or fewer, a fine neighborhood to live in holding Washington +4.5, which we took at +100 at DraftKings. The genuine danger is up front: Laremy Tunsil is on IR, Daniels has taken 12 sacks, and Myles Garrett is expected back for the first time since Week 1. With Terry McLaurin, Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown all unavailable, a two-score deficit would be a long walk home. Keep it ugly and this roster can hang. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL .NOV 08.2026RamsCommandersWashington Commanders +4.5 (+100)4 INTs27th4 of 8STAFFORDRAMSEXPLOSIVERAMSGAMESVSBLITZPLAYSWITHIN4 | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Nov 7 | NBA | Nuggets ML (-268) at PacersDenver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers · Sat, Nov 7, 2:00 PM PTAE's analysisTyrese Haliburton stayed home in Indianapolis to rehab his hamstring, and Saturday is the sixth straight game he will miss. In the previous five without him, Indiana went 1-4 and lost by an average of 6.6 points. The projected point guard is rookie Braden Smith, making his third career start. T.J. McConnell is questionable and has not played a minute in nine games. Ivica Zubac is back from a sprained ankle that cost him five games, but his return Wednesday produced 1 point in 19 minutes, and his next job is Nikola Jokic, who has three triple-doubles in seven games. Then there is the room. Arena CDMX sits at roughly 7,350 feet, about 2,000 feet above Denver's home floor, and the Pacers flew in Thursday from Memphis, close to sea level. Kelly Oubre said Friday's practice was sprints to break in their bodies for the altitude, which is a lot like cramming for an exam in a language you don't speak. Denver's net rating is just +0.1 so far, and with Julian Strawther out and DeMar DeRozan probable with back spasms, the bench is short. That is why we want the outright win at -268 with DraftKings and not a margin. Indiana's offense is missing its creator, and Denver's still has its own. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.NOV 07.2026NuggetsPacersDenver Nuggets ML (-268)3rd start6th game3of 7gamesPACERS'JOKICHALIBURTONOUTROOKIEPGTRIPLE-DOUBLES | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Nov 7 | NHL | Lightning ML (-125) at WildTampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild · Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM PTAE's analysisMinnesota's 12-3-3 start has mostly been Jesper Wallstedt's work. He has started 16 of their 18 games and is stopping .922 of what he faces. He also played Friday, making 23 saves in a 4-1 win over San Jose, so tonight's net goes to Calvin Pickard, confirmed for the second half of the back-to-back. Pickard hasn't started since Oct. 25 and sits at .833 on 42 shots this season. His career mark is near .900, so he is a perfectly good backup. But he has spent two weeks as the best-dressed spectator in the building, and now he gets Kucherov, Point and Guentzel as his warmup. The defense in front of him is thin as well. John Hynes ruled out Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon for the weekend, which puts Matt Kiersted and David Spacek in the lineup against a Tampa team that has scored four or more in five straight and had Friday off. We took the Lightning at -125 at BetRivers. The real question mark is in our own net. Tampa plays at Winnipeg on Sunday, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is projected but not confirmed, so Dennis Hildeby could start this one. Vasilevskiy's .886 this season hasn't been a brick wall either. Even so, only one team is starting a cold backup tonight, and it isn't ours. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL .NOV 07.2026LightningWildTampa Bay Lightning ML (-125)2 out2nd night.833 sv%WILDWILD'SPICKARDWILD DEFENSEMENBACK-TO-BACK | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Nov 7 | NHL | Detroit Red Wings +1.5 (-125) at Colorado AvalancheDetroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche · Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisColorado's scoreboard says juggernaut. The shot ledger says it's a much closer game. This season the Avalanche hold about 55 percent of all-situations expected goals to Detroit's 52, a gap of roughly three points. They have also scored about 14 more five-on-five goals than their chances account for. That is a finishing heater, and a heater at altitude still comes back down. Detroit, meanwhile, has made losing politely into a habit: only four of its 17 games have been losses by two or more, and the Red Wings have not lost any of Daniil Tarasov's five starts by more than a goal. His .929 save percentage has kept a roster without Dylan Larkin, held out while he waits on a trade, and Marco Kasper inside the number. At the other end, Mackenzie Blackwood sits at .893. Colorado has scored exactly two goals in each of its last two games, including a 3-2 overtime loss to Nashville at Ball Arena on Wednesday, which is the kind of result we want. We took Detroit +1.5 at -125 at BetMGM. The real risk is Detroit's net: neither starter is confirmed, and John Gibson practiced Friday and could get the nod with an .860 save percentage, which would take a lot of the shine off this. With Tarasov in, Detroit is built to lose by one or not at all. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL .NOV 07.2026Red WingsAvalancheDetroit Red Wings +1.5 (-125)4 of 17.929.893SV%SV%RED WINGSREDWINGS'AVALANCHE'SLOSTBY2+TARASOVBLACKWOOD | Lost | −1.2uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Nov 5 | NHL | Canucks +1.5 (-130) at JetsVancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets · Thu, Nov 5, 5:00 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisWinnipeg has won five games this season, and four of them came by a single goal. The one exception was a 5-2 win over Minnesota on Oct. 13. Even Tuesday's comeback from four goals down in Montreal ended 5-4 in overtime. That's who these Jets are: 39 goals in 16 games, only 16 of them in seven home games, with Kyle Connor scoring 13 while Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi have three between them. It's an offense cooking on one burner and a pilot light. Josh Morrissey hasn't played since Oct. 7 and is out again Thursday, according to TSN's Nov. 4 report. Stuart Skinner sits at .882 since Connor Hellebuyck was traded to New Jersey in October. In Vancouver's crease, the Winnipeg Free Press reports Leevi Merilainen (.897) gets the start after Kevin Lankinen (.808) took Tuesday's game in Anaheim, and the Canucks have covered +1.5 in five of Merilainen's eight decisions. We're not calling Vancouver good. They're 3-13-1, and their penalty kill has given up a goal roughly a third of the time, so Connor will get his chances on the power play. We took Canucks +1.5 at -130 at BetMGM. Our bet is that a Jets team that has pulled away from exactly one opponent all season doesn't find a second gear tonight. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.NOV05,2026CanucksJetsVancouver Canucks +1.5 (-130)4 of 5165 of 8goalsJETSWINSJETSSCOREDINCANUCKS+1.5BY1GOAL7HOME GAMESWITH MERILAINEN | Lost | −1.3uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Nov 4 | NBA | Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 (-113) vs Indiana PacersIndiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies · Wed, Nov 4, 5:00 PM PT · Line −6.5AE's analysisIndiana comes to Memphis with both point guards out. Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell have hamstring strains, so Andrew Nembhard runs everything, Quenton Jackson is the probable starter beside him and Jay Huff is listed at center. The Pacers are 0-4 since Haliburton went down on Oct. 26 and have averaged 107.0 points in those games. The low point came with Pascal Siakam, Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith all playing: 90 points at home against Brooklyn. That offense is trying to start a car by describing the engine to it. Memphis is 6-1 with a 107.1 defensive rating, and Zach Edey and Cameron Boozer are a lot to deal with at the rim for a lineup with Huff in the middle. We are not buying Ty Jerome's 28.2 points a night against a career best of 12.5, and an early slate heavy on Utah and Sacramento proved little. Memphis doesn't need to be a juggernaut. It needs a competent home night against a team playing its third game in four nights, and that is why we took Memphis -6.5 at -113 at DraftKings. The real swing is the three questionables, Ivica Zubac, Obi Toppin and Kelly Oubre Jr. Zubac has missed five straight with an ankle sprain, and if all three play, the margin gets tighter. Without a point guard, though, Indiana is still guessing on most possessions. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.NOV04.2026PacersGrizzliesMemphis Grizzlies -6.5(-113)6-10-4gamesGRIZZLIESPACERS WITHOUTPACERSINHALIBURTONTHISSEASON4NIGHTS | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Nov 4 | NBA | New Orleans Pelicans ML (-205) vs Utah JazzUtah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans · Wed, Nov 4, 5:00 PM PTAE's analysisUtah arrives in New Orleans with its rim protection in the repair shop. Jaren Jackson Jr. tore his right MCL on Oct. 26 and is out, Jusuf Nurkic is out with a foot injury, and Mo Bamba is questionable with a sprained ankle. That leaves Jaxson Hayes as the welcoming committee for Zion Williamson, Derik Queen and Karlo Matkovic. The matchup could hardly suit this Pelicans offense better. New Orleans takes just under 44 percent of its shots inside four feet, converts 67.2 percent of them, and scored 64 paint points on Utah on Oct. 23 with Jackson on the floor; he had 24 and 10 in that 120-119 Jazz win. Since he went down, Utah is 0-3, losing by 6 in overtime and then by 22 twice, with 90 and 97 points in the last two. The Pelicans have won three straight and get Dejounte Murray back after three games away for the birth of his son. Both teams played Monday, so nobody gets a schedule excuse. Our position is the Pelicans moneyline, taken at -205 at FanDuel. Utah's way out is the arc: New Orleans ranks 26th in opponent three-point percentage, and Lauri Markkanen hit four threes Monday, so a hot shooting night can keep this close. Still, a team that can't guard the paint is about to play one that lives there. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA·NOV04.2026JazzPelicansNew Orleans Pelicans ML (-205)0-367.2%winsPELICANSJAZZWITHOUTPELICANSJACKSONAT THE RIMINAROW | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Nov 4 | NBA | Wizards ML (+131) vs HawksAtlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards · Wed, Nov 4, 4:00 PM PTAE's analysisAtlanta comes into DC with a frontcourt held together by tape and good intentions. Jock Landale (hip strain), Mouhamed Gueye (foot fracture) and Henri Veesaar (torn ACL) are all out, so Onyeka Okongwu is the last real big left to deal with Anthony Davis, who went 12 of 17 at Orlando on Monday, and Deandre Ayton next to him. Atlanta's season numbers also look better than the team has played. The Hawks are plus 10 overall, but a 47-point flattening of Charlotte accounts for all of it, and they have been outscored by 37 across their other seven games. Monday's 108-104 win at Indiana came against a Pacers team down to six available players, which is less a statement win and more a forfeit with extra steps. Washington has held its last two opponents to 79 and 94. Both teams played Monday, so neither side gets a rest edge, and Trae Young gets his first look at the team that traded him. We took the Wizards at +131 on DraftKings. The live swing is Jalen Johnson: he sat Monday with a sprained ankle and is questionable again. If he's cleared (18.3 points, 9.0 rebounds) and Alex Sarr's sore knee keeps him out, the floor tilts back toward Atlanta's shooters. Until then, the Hawks are bringing a jump-shooting team to a fight that will be decided near the rim. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.NOV04.2026HawksWizardsWashington Wizards ML (+131)12/17 FG94maxWIZARDS'WIZARDS ALLOWEDHAWKSBIGSOUTDAVISMONDAYINLAST2 | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Nov 3 | NHL | Blues ML (+106) at RangersSt. Louis Blues at New York Rangers · Tue, Nov 3, 4:00 PM PTAE's analysisThe Rangers have lost four straight, and the trouble lives in the crease. With Igor Shesterkin out for the season and Joonas Korpisalo on injured reserve, projected starter Dylan Garand has allowed 15 goals on 97 shots across those four starts. That is an .845 save percentage, and it has turned the Garden's net into a screen door in a hurricane. Joel Hofer, projected for St. Louis, sits at .916 with a 2.42 GAA through 10 games, while Garand is at .896 for the season. New York's skaters are not covering for him either: the Rangers own 45 percent of the expected goals this season to the Blues' 48. St. Louis has also had two days off since its 5-4 win in Detroit, and New York had one after Sunday's 4-1 loss to Edmonton. The building is the real counterweight. The Rangers are 6-2-0 at home, although both losses came in their last two games there, and the Blues will likely be without Colton Parayko on a blue line already missing Torey Krug, Tyler Tucker and Logan Mailloux. We took St. Louis at +106 at Caesars on the strength of the goalie gap. Neither starter had been confirmed this morning, though, and our case runs through Hofer. If Jordan Binnington, coming off a rough October, gets the net instead, most of our reason for being here sits down with him. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.NOV03,2026NEWYORKRANGERSBluesRangersSt. Louis Blues ML (+106).845sSV%.916 sv%lossesRANGERS'BLUES'HOFERRANGERSINAROWGARANDLAST4 | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Nov 2 | NBA | Hawks ML (-180) at PacersAtlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers · Mon, Nov 2, 4:30 PM PTAE's analysisIndiana has played three games since Tyrese Haliburton strained his hamstring at Milwaukee on Oct. 26 and lost all three, by an average of 11 points, while scoring about 108 a night. The low point came Sunday: a 98-90 home loss to a Brooklyn team that had not won a game, on 28 of 70 shooting. Tonight the Pacers play again with no rest. Haliburton, T.J. McConnell, Ivica Zubac, Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are all out, and Obi Toppin is unresolved after his back kept him out of the last two games. That leaves Andrew Nembhard as the main ball-handler against Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, which is a lot of on-ball pressure for one guy on tired legs. Atlanta had Sunday off after going 8 of 46 from three in a 121-99 loss at New Orleans, a shooting night so cold it should come with a parka. Nights like that rarely repeat. The Hawks are short too: Kingston Flemings is serving a one-game suspension and Jock Landale is out. Jalen Johnson decides this game. As of this morning he is questionable with a left ankle sprain. He averages 18.1 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.9 assists, and without him this turns into a much closer game we would not back. We took Atlanta at -180 at FanDuel, and that depends on Johnson playing. If he does, the rested, deeper team should handle a gutted one. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.NOV02.2026HawksPacersAtlanta Hawks ML (-180)0-35out18.1 pPGPACERS WITHOUTHAWKS'JALENPACERSROTATIONHALIBURTONJOHNSON | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Nov 2 | NBA | LA Clippers +4.5 (+100) vs Toronto RaptorsToronto Raptors at LA Clippers · Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM PT · Line 4.5AE's analysisToronto walks into Intuit Dome with a plus 7.8 net rating, and most of it was earned by a man who will be in street clothes. Kawhi Leonard played two games, won them by a combined 53 points, and is out with left knee swelling. In the four games since, the Raptors are minus 6 total, which is what an ordinary team looks like once you take the cape off. That ordinary team is on the second night of a back-to-back after a 131-125 loss to the Lakers in which Luka Doncic scored 45. Jakob Poeltl, a late scratch Sunday with left shoulder bursitis, had no confirmed status as of this morning, and Nate Bittle is already out. The Clippers are 1-5, but Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram and Max Strus have been out since opening night, so that record describes this roster rather than hiding a fresh wound. We took them at +4.5, even money at BetRivers. The real danger is the ball: the Clippers give it away on 18.4 percent of possessions, Toronto forces turnovers on 18.9 percent, and Derrick Jones Jr.'s knee, which ended his Sunday early, is still unresolved. If the Clippers win the possession battle, the Raptors are left trying to cash a check signed by someone who isn't in the building. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBANOV02,2026RaptorsClippersLA Clippers +4.5 (+100)2nd night131-6ptsptsRAPTORSRAPTORSRAPTORSMARGINLAST4BACK-TO-BACKALLOWEDSUN | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Nov 2 | NBA | Pistons -3.5 (-115) at HornetsDetroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets · Mon, Nov 2, 4:30 PM PT · Line −3.5AE's analysisCharlotte scores a league-low 98.3 points a night on 40.8 percent shooting. Tonight it sees the defense that allows the fewest points in the league, 101.8 per game, for the second time in six days. The first meeting went badly for the Hornets. They led 51-44 at the half in Detroit, then turned it over 25 times and lost 97-89. Kon Knueppel and Grant Williams are still out with hamstring strains, and Kylan Boswell is out with a knee injury. Charlotte also comes in on one day of rest after losing at Washington on Friday and at home to Philadelphia on Saturday. That makes four games in six nights and a three-game losing streak. Detroit has been off since Friday's 110-94 win at Brooklyn. Coby White makes his season debut after missing all seven games with a calf strain, and a real point guard helps. Still, asking him to fix the league's worst offense on his first night back is a lot of homework for day one. Jalen Duren remains out, and Detroit has averaged just 102.5 points in the four games since he went down, so expect a grind. The Pistons still went 3-1 in those games by an average of 5.75 points. We took Detroit -3.5 at -115 at FanDuel, so a four-point win counts, and in a game this ugly, four points is plenty. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.NOV02.2026DETROITPISTONSHORNETSPistonsHornetsDetroit Pistons -3.55（-115）98.3 pPG25gamesHORNETSHORNETSTURNOVERSHORNETSINWORSTINNBA6DAYSAGO6NIGHTS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Nov 1 | NFL | Under 43.5 (-112) at Miami DolphinsNew England Patriots at Miami Dolphins · Sun, Nov 1, 1:25 PM PT · Line 43.5AE's analysisThe forecast for Hard Rock Stadium reads like a car wash menu, and the canopy covers the seats, not the field. The National Weather Service stadium grid, updated early Sunday, calls for an 80 percent chance of rain with thunderstorms, an east wind around 14 mph gusting to 26 this afternoon, and a Flood Watch from 10 AM Sunday into Monday. We have Under 43.5 at -112 at DraftKings, and the personnel point the same way as the sky. New England ruled out A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) and TreVeyon Henderson (illness) on Saturday, with Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins already on injured reserve. That leaves Drake Maye leaning on Hunter Henry and plenty of Rhamondre Stevenson. Miami scores 16.3 points a game, Malik Willis has 4 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions, and starting lineman Kadyn Proctor is out with a concussion. Against a Patriots defense allowing 20.4 a game, that is not an offense built to keep up in a puddle. The real threat is Maye, who has 12 touchdown passes over his last four games against a Miami pass defense that ranks last in EPA allowed per dropback. New England's last four games landed on 55, 62, 45 and 54 total points. Still, short throws to a tight end and handoffs in a downpour keep the clock running, and a running clock does a lot of the Under's work. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL .NOV 01.2026PatriotsDolphinsUnder 43.5 (-112)4 out80%16.3 pPGCHANCEOFRAINPATRIOTSWEAPONSDOLPHINSOFFENSE | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Nov 1 | NFL | Vikings ML (+155) at LionsMinnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions · Sun, Nov 1, 10:00 AM PTAE's analysisDetroit has the shinier offense. Minnesota has the defense that has already beaten it twice. The Vikings are 6-0 and give up 12.3 points a game. They rank first in the league in EPA allowed per play and in success rate, they lead the league with a 39.1% pressure rate, and they have not allowed a fourth-quarter touchdown in 11 straight games. Last season that unit sacked Jared Goff five times in each meeting, in a 27-24 win at Ford Field and a 23-10 win on Christmas, and Detroit now starts a rookie, Blake Miller, at right tackle. The Lions' defense is a much easier opponent. It ranks 32nd in yards allowed at 391 a game, All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph is out, and corner Roger McCreary is questionable with a foot injury. That leaves Justin Jefferson facing a secondary currently being rebuilt from the spare parts drawer. Minnesota also has the No. 1 special teams unit by DVOA, and short fields are how an offense this slow scores without needing fireworks. That offense is the real risk. Kyler Murray's group averages 20.8 points, and Goff, with 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions, is pressured on only 25.6% of blitzes. If the rush keeps missing, Minnesota probably cannot keep up. We took the Vikings at +155 at BetMGM because this defense has shown twice how to turn Detroit's afternoon into paperwork. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL.NOV01,2026VikingsLionsMinnesota Vikings ML (+155)1st of 3239112.3PPGydsVIKINGSLIONSALLOWVIKINGSALLOWPASSRUSHPERGAME | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 31 | NHL | Under 6 (-105) at Detroit Red WingsSt. Louis Blues at Detroit Red Wings · Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 AM PT · Line 6AE's analysisDetroit's offense has been a smoke detector with a dying battery: lots of chirping, very little happening. The Red Wings are scoring 2.69 goals a game through 13 games, 26th in the league, and that was before Dylan Larkin was suspended without pay on Oct. 29 after telling the club he would not play until traded. Marco Kasper and Mason Appleton are still 10 to 14 days away, per Todd McLellan, so rookie Emmitt Finnie takes Larkin's spot between Alex DeBrincat and Viktor Arvidsson. The goalie they will most likely face is Joel Hofer: 5-3-1 with a 2.24 GAA and .923 save percentage in nine starts, and he stopped 31 of 32 against Boston on Thursday. Both teams come in on two days' rest. The season scoring points the same way, with Red Wings games averaging 5.46 total goals and Blues games 5.92. We took Under 6 at -105 at BetMGM. Two things could push this to seven. As of Saturday morning St. Louis had not named Hofer, and Jordan Binnington (.846 in four starts) would be a different game. Detroit has confirmed John Gibson, who sits at .874, and his penalty kill is working at 66.7 percent against a Blues power play at 25.7 percent. For the over to get there, it needs a parade to the box. The full six also covers a 4-2 final, which only returns the stake. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL·OCT31,2026BluesRed WingsUnder 6 (-105)26th.9235.46goalsRED WINGSBLUES'HOFERPERREDSCORINGSAVE RATEWINGSGAME | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 31 | WNBA | Golden State Valkyries ML (-108) vs Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries · Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM PTAE's analysisGame 7 at Chase Center comes down to one number: 70. Golden State is 3-0 in this series when Atlanta stays under it, holding the Dream to 64, 62 and 55, and 0-3 when Atlanta gets there. In three games at Chase, the Dream have averaged 66.0. The Valkyries played at the league's slowest pace this season (74.5) behind its best defensive rating (100.6), and at home they have turned this series into a grind. Atlanta shot 33 percent in Game 1 and 29 percent in Game 5 here, with 12 and 17 turnovers. Golden State went 17-5 at home in the regular season and is 6-1 at Chase this postseason. Atlanta has played the whole playoffs without Brionna Jones, its regular-season PER leader. We took the Valkyries at -108 at FanDuel. The real threat is the Game 6 version of Atlanta: 32 points in the first quarter, 13 threes and 23 from Allisha Gray. That team beats anybody. Still, the Dream's two biggest nights, 97 and 80, both came in their own building, and Saturday's tempo belongs to the home team. Golden State's offense hasn't topped 71 all series and is more crockpot than grill, but at home the crockpot has been enough. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. WNBA .OCT 31.2026DreamValkyriesGolden State Valkyries ML (-108)1st29%6-1VALKYRIESDREAMSHOTVALKYRIESATDEFENSEINGAME5HOMEINPLAYOFFS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 31 | COLLEGE FOOTBALL | Under 47.5 (-110) at Oregon DucksNorthwestern Wildcats at Oregon Ducks · Sat, Oct 31, 12:30 PM PT · Line 47.5AE's analysisOregon's offense has spent October treating the end zone like a rumor. In three games since Dante Moore went down, the Ducks scored 15, 17 and 10 and turned it over ten times, and those three games totaled 32, 31 and 31 points. At Illinois last week they outgained the Illini 426 to 314, went 4 of 15 on third down and still scored only ten. Now interim play-caller Jay Johnson takes over after Drew Mehringer was fired on Oct. 25, and Dylan Raiola plays behind a line missing both starting guards, Trent Ferguson and Dave Iuli. Getting Evan Stewart and Jalen Lott back helps, but Messiah Hampton is out. Northwestern doesn't speed this game up. The Wildcats run for 204.6 yards a game and have given the ball away three times in seven games, so drives are long and the clock keeps moving. Both defenses are strong at the moments that decide scoring: Oregon holds opponents to 29.7 percent on third down, 11th nationally, and Northwestern allows touchdowns on just 39.1 percent of red-zone trips. One risk is real. Northwestern leads the Big Ten with 46 explosive runs, and Oregon's front is without Matt Johnson and Brayden Platt, so a couple of long touchdown runs would change the math. We took the under 47.5 at -110 at DraftKings, expecting a game full of long drives that end in field goals. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. COLLEGEFOOTBALL.OCT31,2026NorthwesternOregonUnder 47.5 (-110)1029.7%39.1%ptsDUCKSSCORED3RDDOWNSREDZONETDSVSDUCKSATILLINOISVS WILDCATS | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Oct 30 | NHL | Flames +1.5 (-235) vs KrakenSeattle Kraken at Calgary Flames · Fri, Oct 30, 5:00 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisSeattle comes into Calgary at 8-4-1, and the record flatters a team that spends most nights chasing the puck. The Kraken are being outshot 31.1 to 25.5 a game and have only about 43 percent of shot attempts, yet they have 37 five-on-five goals on roughly 24 expected. That 14.5 percent shooting rate is running hot enough to need its own fire marshal, and Jared McCann, their top shooter, is on injured reserve for about ten weeks. Calgary looks like the reverse: 52 percent of five-on-five attempts, 15 goals on nearly 24 expected, 8.1 percent shooting and a 4-3-0 home record that includes four straight home wins. Special teams point the same way. Calgary's power play is at 29.0 percent, fifth in the league, against a Seattle kill that has allowed 12 goals on 37 chances. The worry is in net. Devin Cooley left Wednesday with a lower-body injury, so Dustin Wolf is the expected starter, and he is at .839 this season and was in goal for both 6-1 losses to Seattle. That is why we took Calgary +1.5 at -235 at BetMGM instead of asking for a win. A Flames win of any kind or a one-goal loss covers it, and Wolf only has to look like his .899 self from last season. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT30,2026KrakenFlamesCalgary Flames +1.5 (-235)4 wins5th10weeksFLAMESFLAMESKRAKEN'SHOMESTREAKPOWERPLAYMCCANNOUT | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Oct 30 | NBA | Mavericks +6.5 (-104) vs RocketsHouston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks · Fri, Oct 30, 5:00 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisHouston is the better team, and nine days ago it proved it: 128-110 over these Mavericks, built on 17 offensive rebounds and 21 Dallas turnovers, with Alperen Sengun putting up 23 and 10. The roster Houston brings tonight is thinner. Sengun is questionable with a mild lower back strain after sitting Wednesday, and Ime Udoka has said he will be cautious with it. That is an easy promise to keep when Oklahoma City visits Houston on Saturday to finish a back-to-back. Steven Adams and Reed Sheppard are out and Marcus Smart is questionable, so the rebounding and guard depth that won the opener are both running on fumes. The rotation behind Fred VanVleet and Amen Thompson looks like a group project where half the group called in sick. Dallas is home and rested, and both Cooper Flagg, who scored 32 on Houston in the first meeting, and Kyrie Irving are off the injury report. The spread has gone from 4.5 in August to 6.5 this morning while Houston's injury list got longer, and we took the points at -104 at BetRivers. The real threat is easy to name: Houston won 132-100 at Milwaukee on Wednesday without Sengun, and if he is cleared before tip, most of this case goes with him. Unless that happens, a touchdown is a lot to ask from a road team playing with a borrowed rotation. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.OCT 30,2026RocketsMavericksDallas Mavericks +6.5 (-104)2 outmorestarsROCKETSMAVERICKSROCKETSROTATIONQUESTIONABLEHEALTHY | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Oct 29 | NHL | Under 6.5 (-135) Canadiens at StarsMontreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars · Thu, Oct 29, 5:00 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisDallas has spent October winning games without scoring much. The Stars are 25th in the league at 2.67 goals per game, they allow 22.2 shots a night, second fewest in the NHL, and Matt Duchene, Radek Faksa and Oskar Back are all out up front. Montreal arrives without captain Nick Suzuki, who led the team with 12 points in nine games, and without Ivan Demidov. The Canadiens also managed 21 shots or fewer in each of their last two games. Their 11.4 percent power play now meets a Dallas penalty kill working at 92.9 percent, which is like bringing a butter knife to a locked vault. Jake Oettinger is expected in net for Dallas, but the club has not confirmed it. He sits at .929 with three shutouts in nine starts, and if Casey DeSmith (.888) starts instead, Montreal gets real help. The number has climbed because Jakub Dobes starts for Montreal, and his .847 does look ugly. It comes on just 144 shots, though, from a goalie who posted .901 over 43 games last season. Even if he gives some of that back, this game needs seven goals from two offenses that are struggling to find three. We took Under 6.5 at -135 at DraftKings. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL·OCT29,2026CanadiensStarsMontreal Canadiens @ Dallas Stars Under 6.5 (-135)22.292.9%25thshotsSTARS ALLOWSTARSSTARSINSCORINGNIGHTLYPENALTY KILL | Lost | −1.4uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Oct 29 | NHL | Under 6.5 (-128) at Carolina HurricanesColumbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes · Thu, Oct 29, 4:00 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisColumbus has scored 25 goals in 10 games, the fewest in the NHL. Tonight it visits the team that allows the fewest shots in the league, 21.9 a game, which is a bad matchup for anyone hoping for fireworks. The Blue Jackets' power play converts 11.1 percent, 30th in the league, so the usual way out of a quiet night is shut too. Their last game tells you plenty. They won 4-3 in overtime at Philadelphia on Tuesday while getting outshot 32 to 15. That was less an offense than a hostage situation the goalie talked his way out of. Columbus games have averaged 5.9 total goals this season. Carolina is the scoring threat at 3.79 goals a game, but it also wins by squeezing: Tuesday's 2-1 win over Boston came with a 30-16 shot edge. The crease decides how quiet this gets. Pyotr Kochetkov is 8-0-0 with a .918 save percentage, and six of his eight starts finished under 6.5. Carolina has not named a starter, and several previews expect Brandon Bussi (.865) after Kochetkov's two straight starts. A Bussi night makes a 5-2 type score more reachable. We took the under at -128 at FanDuel, because either way Columbus has to find scoring it hasn't shown all October. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT29,2026Blue JacketsHurricanesUnder 6.5 (-128)2.521.930th。shotsgoalsof 32BLUEJACKETSHURRICANESBLUEJACKETSPERGAMEALLOWPERGAMEPOWERPLAY | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Oct 29 | NBA | Pelicans -5.5 (-112) vs KingsSacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans · Thu, Oct 29, 5:00 PM PT · Line −5.5AE's analysisSacramento shows up in New Orleans with a frontcourt held together by tape and optimism. Keegan Murray is out with left ankle capsulitis, backup centers Maxime Raynaud and Dylan Cardwell are both out, and Ben Simmons is done for the season. That leaves Domantas Sabonis, Precious Achiuwa and Jonathan Mogbo as the only bigs available against Zion Williamson, who is 32 of 53 from the field this season and went 10 of 14 for 25 on Wednesday. The Kings carry a minus 17.6 net rating through four games and have lost all four by at least eight, including road losses by 25 to the Clippers and 27 to the Spurs. We are laying 5.5 at -112 at FanDuel. The schedule is the real worry. New Orleans plays the second night of a home back to back after scoring 91 against Denver on 7 of 30 from three with 19 turnovers. But nobody had to fly, Zion played 32 minutes, and one cold shooting night tells us little against a defense that hands out open threes like free samples at a grocery store. Yves Missi is expected to sit again and Jordan Poole is a game time call, with neither status official as of this morning. That gives Sabonis room to clean up on the glass, so we see a comfortable Pelicans cover, not a demolition. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.OCT29,2026SACRAMENTOKINGSKingsPelicansNew Orleans Pelicans -5.5 (-112)0-425 pts4 outKINGSTHISZIONONKINGSPLAYERSSEASONWEDNESDAY | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Oct 28 | MLS | Real Salt Lake ML (+138) vs Austin FCReal Salt Lake at Austin FC · Wed, Oct 28, 5:30 PM PTAE's analysisAustin needs three points or its season ends, and that shapes this game. A loss or a draw eliminates the hosts, so they can't sit back at Q2 Stadium, where they haven't won a league match since beating Seattle on July 22, a run of seven. They'll have to chase without Jon Bell, Ervin Torres or Chris Applewhite, all listed out on the official status report. Their defense has already conceded 57 goals in 31 matches, and there's still a goalkeeper question after Damian Las, not Brad Stuver, started last weekend at Kansas City. It's a back line put together like flat-pack furniture with two screws missing. Real Salt Lake should be glad to see Austin come forward. The visitors are 3-1-1 over their last five and sit two points below the West playoff line. Sergi Solans has 14 league goals after his brace in Saturday's 3-0 win over a St. Louis side that played most of the second half with ten men. The real knock is RSL's road record: 2-3-10, with Diego Luna and Emeka Eneli both out. Austin has also drawn six of 15 at home, and a draw sinks this ticket the same as a loss. We took RSL at +138 at BetRivers because a home side that has to attack, with a patched defense, is the opening a 14-goal striker needs. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLS.0CT28.2026AUSTINRSLAustinReal Salt Lake ML（+1385714 goalsgamesgoalsAUSTIN WINLESSAUSTINALLOWEDRSL'SSOLANSATHOMEIN31GAMES | Won | +1.4uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Oct 28 | NBA | Mavericks ML (+188) vs ThunderOklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks · Wed, Oct 28, 6:30 PM PTAE's analysisOklahoma City arrives in Dallas with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a training room that needs a bigger waiting area. Jalen Williams (fractured fibula) and Cason Wallace (torn shoulder labrum) face surgery, Chet Holmgren sits a second straight game with patellar tendinitis, and Alex Caruso is out after spraining an ankle Monday. Ajay Mitchell, who scored a career-high 30 against Phoenix, is questionable with his own ankle sprain. Add the offseason trades of Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins, and the defenders who smothered Cooper Flagg during last season's 3-0 Thunder sweep are either traded or in street clothes. Flagg just put up 29 points, 11 assists and five steals in Monday's 113-109 win at Miami. Tonight he faces a perimeter staffed by rookies like Bennett Stirtz and two-way players. We took the Mavericks at plus 188 with FanDuel, at home, and neither team is on a back-to-back. SGA will get his. The Thunder beat Phoenix 125-114 Monday with a similar skeleton crew. The bigger swing is Kyrie Irving, questionable for knee management and on a minutes restriction after playing nearly 33 minutes Monday. If he is scratched late, Dallas runs short on creators in a hurry, and Flagg ends up cooking the whole menu by himself. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.OCT28.2026ThunderMavericksDallasMavericksML(+188)294 outptsFLAGGINTHUNDERTHUNDER ROTATIONMONDAY WINDEFENDERSTRADED | Won | +1.9uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Oct 27 | NBA | Over 218.5 (-105) at New York KnicksDetroit Pistons at New York Knicks · Tue, Oct 27, 5:00 PM PT · Line 218.5AE's analysisThrough three games, the Knicks' totals read like a dial-up connection: 206, 210, 213. That is a big reason this number sits at 218.5, and we think it leans too hard on one bad week. This is the same starting five that ran the league's third-best offense last season, a 119.8 offensive rating, and made 37.3 percent of its threes on 38.2 attempts a night. Through three games it is shooting 32.4 percent, and Mikal Bridges is 0 for 10 from deep. Shooters that good tend not to forget how. The bigger change is at the rim. Detroit's second-ranked defense last season, at 109.7, was built around Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart. Stewart was traded to Memphis in June, Duren is out at least two weeks with a strained right hamstring, and Ausar Thompson is questionable with an ankle sprain. The Pistons are still scoring 118.3 a game on 42 percent from three, and Cade Cunningham had 26, 8 and 8 in Sunday's 106-93 win at Philadelphia without Duren or Thompson. One thing a reader deserves to know: this same scheme held New York to 90 and 80 in two meetings last season with Duren unavailable, so this defense has shown it can work without its center. We took Over 218.5 at -105 at FanDuel, and we expect the Knicks' shooting to come back toward its usual level against a thinner frontline. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.OCT27.2026KNICKSYDETROITPISTONSPistonsKnicksOver 218.5 (-105)3rd42%118.3 pPGKNICKSOFFENSEPISTONSFROMPISTONSSO FARLASTYEAR3 SO FAR | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Oct 26 | NHL | Calgary Flames +1.5 (-170) vs Toronto Maple LeafsToronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames · Mon, Oct 26, 5:30 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisToronto rolls into Calgary on a four-game win streak with 18 goals in its last three, but the Leafs control just 47 percent of 5-on-5 shot attempts and are leaning on a 95.2 percent penalty kill that cannot stay that hot forever. The blue line is being held together with practice jerseys and good intentions. Chris Tanev, Nick Blankenburg and Marshall Rifai are out, Troy Stecher and Taylor Raddysh skated in the top four at Friday's practice, and AHL recall Dakota Mermis is on the third pair. Anthony Stolarz made 30 saves Saturday in Edmonton, so Sergei Bobrovsky is expected in net with a .895 save percentage, coming off four goals allowed on 25 shots against the Rangers. Calgary scores about 2.3 a game without Jonathan Huberdeau and Sam Honzek, and Mikael Backlund is day to day. Still, Devin Cooley has stopped 98 of 102 shots across three straight home wins, and the Flames' power play is 8 for 25 against a team that takes 4.2 penalties a game. We took Calgary +1.5 at -170 at FanDuel, so we need a Flames win or a Toronto win by one goal. Neither starter is confirmed. A Dustin Wolf start (.834) would knock out the best part of this case, and a late empty-netter is the other way it slips away. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL·OCT26,2026TORONTOMAPLELEAFSMaple LeafsFlamesCalgary Flames +1.5 (-170)8 of 253 wins3outFLAMESFLAMESLEAFS DEFENSEMENPOWERPLAYHOMESTREAK | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Oct 26 | MLB | Brewers ML (+103) at Tampa Bay RaysMilwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays · Mon, Oct 26, 5:00 PM PTAE's analysisMilwaukee comes to Tropicana Field up two games to none after 3-2 and 5-4 wins, and tonight's matchup favors the Brewers where October games tend to be decided. Robert Gasser has allowed one run in nine postseason innings, and he gets a Rays lineup that hit .248/.315/.364 against left-handers this season. He doesn't have to go deep, either, because behind him is a bullpen with a 1.24 ERA over 50.2 postseason innings. Freddy Peralta is the real obstacle. He has a 1.08 postseason ERA and a 1.45 ERA in 37.1 innings at the Trop since the deadline trade. His control hasn't kept pace with those results, though: 7 walks in 16.2 playoff innings, against a lineup that led baseball with a .341 on-base percentage. With this group, a walk is a down payment and the Brewers come to collect. The bullpen's load is the one thing to watch. Aaron Ashby threw 48 pitches and Abner Uribe 41 across Games 1 and 2, and Sunday was their only day off. We took Milwaukee at +103 at Caesars, and the bet comes down to depth: the 103-win club has more good arms to get through nine innings than the team chasing it. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB .0CT26.2026TBBrewersRaysBrewers ML (+103)2-01.24 ERA103winsBREWERSBREWERSBREWERSSERIESLEADPLAYOFFBULLPENTHISSEASON | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Oct 26 | NHL | Red Wings +1.5 (-148) at OilersDetroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers · Mon, Oct 26, 6:30 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisEdmonton's offense needs no defending from us: 4.36 goals a game, a power play converting 35.1 percent, and Connor McDavid at 33 points through 11 games. The trouble is at the other end. Devon Levi is on injured reserve, so Tristan Jarry is expected in net with a .861 save percentage this season, coming off six goals allowed on 32 shots in Saturday's 7-2 loss to Toronto. Mattias Ekholm is out with a concussion, which moved Shakir Mukhamadullin up to the top pair beside Evan Bouchard, and the Leafs used that pairing like a piñata. The Oilers allow 3.55 goals a game, 27th in the league, and at Rogers Place they have won by two or more once in six games: 5-6 OT, 3-1, 2-4, 4-3 OT, 6-5 SO, 2-7. Detroit has lost by multiple goals in only three of its 11 games, which is why we took the Red Wings plus a goal and a half at -148 at DraftKings. Special teams are the real threat. Detroit kills just 65.8 percent of its penalties, and two minors plus a late empty-netter is the most direct way to an Edmonton cover. Neither starter is confirmed, and John Gibson (.867) is projected for Detroit. Still, this Oilers team scores like a contender and defends like it is still circling the arena for parking. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL .OCT 26.2026OILERSRed WingsOilersDetroit Red Wings +1.5 (-148).861s3 of 111of6sV%OILERSHOMEOILERS'RED WINGSWINS BY 2+JARRYINNETLOSTBY2+ | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Oct 25 | NFL | Jets ML (-190) vs DolphinsMiami Dolphins at New York Jets · Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM PTAE's analysisMiami comes to MetLife 0-5. The offense averages 14.0 points a game and has been held to 13 or fewer in four of five, so it hasn't stalled so much as never left the driveway. Malik Willis has seven turnovers in five starts, with a lost fumble in each of his last three, and now he meets rookie David Bailey (five sacks, three forced fumbles) and a Jets defense that blitzes on 37.4 percent of dropbacks. The other side of the ball tilts the same way. Geno Smith has 1,336 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception. Adonai Mitchell is expected back after missing four games, joining Garrett Wilson and Omar Cooper Jr., who caught 6 passes for 103 yards in his return last week. Miami's defense has four sacks all season and allows 76.6 percent completions, so the line that has given up the most sacks in the league (19) gets an unusually quiet afternoon. We took the Jets at -190 at FanDuel. Breece Hall is reported unlikely to play, but Braelon Allen has 253 rushing yards over his last three starts. The real threat is Miami's run game, rested off a bye and facing a Jets run defense ranked 23rd, which could turn this into a field-goal fight. If it comes to that, Miami's kicker is Zane Gonzalez, elevated from the practice squad Saturday and yet to kick in a 2026 game. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL.OCT25,2026ETSDolphinsJetsNew York Jets ML (-190)7 tosINTsacksDOLPHINS'WILLISJETSROOKIEJETSQBSMITHIN5STARTSBAILEYTHREW ALL YEAR | Lost | −1.9uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Oct 25 | NFL | Raiders +3.5 (-112) vs RamsLos Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 1:25 PM PT · Line 3.5AE's analysisMatthew Stafford leads the NFL with 1,794 passing yards through six games, and he walks into Allegiant Stadium with a receiving corps that looks borrowed from the lost and found. Davante Adams is on injured reserve with a ruptured hamstring. Tight end Terrance Ferguson has been on IR since Oct. 5. Puka Nacua (calf) sat out Friday's practice. Adam Schefter reported Sunday morning that the Rams are optimistic Nacua plays after a pregame workout, and a full-speed Nacua is the biggest threat to this ticket. The defense is thinner still: Poona Ford and Kobie Turner are on IR, Nate Landman is out with a concussion, and Trent McDuffie did not practice all week after missing Week 6. That matters, because over six games Las Vegas has thrown it more efficiently than Los Angeles, 7.85 passing EPA per game to 4.92, and Kirk Cousins to Brock Bowers is exactly the matchup a patched secondary hates. We took the Raiders +3.5 at -112 at BetMGM because this one profiles close. The Raiders can't run (79.2 yards per game, 30th) and have allowed 108 points across three straight losses, but the Rams may be handing a one-score finish to Brandon McManus, who debuts as their third kicker in six weeks. A Rams win by a field goal still leaves us standing. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL.OCT25,2026RAIDERSRamsRaidersLas Vegas Raiders +3.5 (-112)2out3out3rdkickerRAMSPASSRAMSDEFENDERSRAMSIN6WEEKSCATCHERS | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Oct 25 | NFL | Lions -3.5 (+100) vs PackersGreen Bay Packers at Detroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 1:25 PM PT · Line −3.5AE's analysisGreen Bay shows up at Ford Field with a front seven that reads more like a transaction log. Zaire Franklin, who wears the green dot, was ruled out Friday with a shin injury. Edgerrin Cooper and Javon Hargrave are done for the season with torn Achilles tendons, and Micah Parsons is still on PUP. That leaves Isaiah McDuffie and Ty'Ron Hopper, in his third career start, to track Jahmyr Gibbs in an outside-zone scheme built to make linebackers guess. That is a rough way to take a pop quiz. Detroit is scoring 32.8 points a game, has hit 31 or more in four of five, and comes off its bye with Brian Branch and Cade Mays activated Saturday. Flip the field and the Lions lead the league with 20 sacks. They face a Packers line that has allowed 97 pressures, fourth most, and a run game averaging 2.9 yards a carry keeps Jordan Love in obvious passing downs, even with Josh Jacobs debuting after one week of practice. We took Detroit -3.5 at +100 at DraftKings. The real risk is Detroit's own defense, which allows 29.6 points a game and is still without Kerby Joseph. A shootout settled by a field goal lands on the wrong side of the hook. Even so, every Lions strength here points straight at a Green Bay soft spot. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL.OCT 25.2026PackersLionsDetroit Lions -3.5 (+100)32.8 pPG204 outsacksPACKERSLIONSOFFENSELIONSLEADNFLFRONTSEVEN | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 24 | LIGA MX | Draw (+240) vs GuadalajaraGuadalajara at Monterrey · Sat, Oct 24, 6:00 PM PTAE's analysisChivas arrive at Estadio BBVA second in the table on 23 points, and they got there by not conceding: 12 goals allowed in 13 matches. On the road this Apertura they are 2W 4D 0L, and three of those six away games finished 1-1. Their trouble is at the other end. Armando González took his 24 goals to Olympiacos in August. Ángel Sepúlveda and Brian Gutiérrez didn't travel because of muscle problems, and Luis Romo is out of midfield. Chivas have scored five goals in their last five games, and one of those was a Necaxa own goal, so the attack is living on tips. Omar Govea is back in the travel party, which helps Gabriel Milito keep the ball and keep his shape. Monterrey are the louder side, with 13 goals in six home games. Óliver Torres was cleared after an ankle check, and Uros Djurdjevic is their only absence. But Rayados were in Puebla on Wednesday, a day after Chivas last played, so they have one less day of rest. They have also conceded in four straight games. The real danger is that Monterrey have drawn only twice in 12, and an early goal here could turn this into a 2-0. Still, a stingy visitor with a blunt attack against a host that leaks a little looks like a 1-1 to us, and we took the draw at +240 at BetRivers. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. LIGAMX·OCT24,2026ChivasMonterreyDraw(+240)124 drawsgoalsgoalsCHIVASCHIVASCHIVASIN6AWAYALLOWEDIN13SCOREDIN5 | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 24 | NHL | Under 6 (-105) at Philadelphia FlyersAnaheim Ducks at Philadelphia Flyers · Sat, Oct 24, 10:00 AM PT · Line 6AE's analysisPhiladelphia has scored 20 goals in 12 games, and ten of those games finished with five goals or fewer, so the Flyers' goal light has mostly been on a light shift. Even their current three-game win streak came 3-1, 3-2 and 3-1. Now Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett are both on injured reserve. Anaheim has its own dry spell: nine goals in a five-game losing streak, 0 for 14 on the power play over that stretch, and 16 shots in Thursday's 4-1 loss at New Jersey. Saturday's 1 p.m. start is the Ducks' fourth game in six days and the last stop of an eastern trip, and they play it without Troy Terry, Ryan Poehling or Pavel Mintyukov. The Flyers have been rotating goalies, which lines up Joseph Woll and his .917 save percentage for the home net, but neither starter was confirmed as of Saturday morning, and a Dan Vladar start (.900) would weaken the case. On the other end, Lukas Dostal at .881 behind a thinned Anaheim blue line is why Ducks games have averaged six goals. We took Under 6 at -105 at BetMGM, so a game that lands exactly on six returns the stake, and getting to seven would take a lot more finishing than either team has shown. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL .OCT 24.2026DucksFlyersUnder 6 (-105)20goalsgoalsshotsFLYERSINDUCKSINDUCKS ON12GAMES5LOSSESTHURSDAY | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 24 | COLLEGE FOOTBALL | Under 50 (-110) at Illinois Fighting IlliniOregon Ducks at Illinois Fighting Illini · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM PT · Line 50AE's analysisOregon has scored 15 and 17 points in two games without Dante Moore, and the details are worse than the totals: seven turnovers in the loss to UCLA, then 242 yards on 76 plays against Nebraska. Friday's availability report took more away. Evan Stewart, Jeremiah McClellan, Jalen Lott and Messiah Hampton are all out, along with offensive linemen Trent Ferguson, Immanuel Iheanacho and Kawika Rogers. That leaves Dylan Raiola, the expected starter, throwing mostly to Dakorien Moore and tight end Jamari Johnson. Raiola's one start this year went 6 of 18 for 43 yards and two interceptions. What's left of that passing game is a skeleton crew and a group chat. Illinois gives the keys to true freshman Michael Clayton II, whose whole college passing record is eight attempts. He plays without running back Ca'Lil Valentine, two offensive linemen and a tight end, against an Oregon defense allowing 20.7 points a game and 25.9 percent on third down. We took Under 50 at -110 at Fanatics. The real threat is the Illinois defense, which allows 27.8 points a game and has five sacks all season. If Oregon's backs find that soft front early, the scoreboard can wake up. Still, it takes two offenses to throw a party, and this one is missing most of the guest list. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. COLLEGEFOOTBALL·OCT24,2026OregonIllinoisUnder 50 (-110)1720.73outPPGmaxDUCKSSCOREDDUCKSDEFENSEDUCKS LINEMENIN LAST 2ALLOWS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Oct 23 | NBA | Bucks ML (-104) vs BullsChicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks · Fri, Oct 23, 1:00 PM PTAE's analysisThe Bucks open at home at 3 p.m. Central because the Brewers have World Series Game 1 that night. Their afternoon opponent is a Bulls team that is still recovering from Wednesday. Chicago lost 135-92 in Toronto, went 4 of 36 from three and turned it over 27 times. Josh Giddey shot 1 for 10 while playing through a sprained left wrist, and he is listed as probable again today. The bigger problem for Chicago is at center. Nic Claxton is out with a left hamstring strain and was set on Oct. 20 for a re-evaluation in about two weeks. That leaves Jalen Smith, a minutes-capped Zach Collins and Tobe Awaka to handle Myles Turner's pick-and-pop and Kel'el Ware's size. Milwaukee has nobody on the official injury report. In Washington, Tyler Herro had 24 points and 9 assists, Jaime Jaquez Jr. scored 22 on 8 of 12 shooting, and the Bucks made 15 threes. That still ended in a 128-116 loss, and the defense gave up 70 paint points and 41 free throws. Chicago's best way back into this game is attacking the rim. Shooting 4 of 36 is also the kind of night that rarely comes back for a second showing. Both teams play again Saturday, so neither side has a schedule edge. We took Milwaukee at -104 at FanDuel. They have the full roster, the home floor and the healthier frontcourt against a Bulls group being held together with athletic tape. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.OCT23,2026BullsBucksMilwaukee Bucks ML (-104)274 of 36BULLSFROMBULLSBUCKSONTURNOVERSWEDTHREE WEDINJURYREPORT | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Oct 23 | NBA | Wizards ML (+285) vs RaptorsToronto Raptors at Washington Wizards · Fri, Oct 23, 4:00 PM PTAE's analysisToronto's 135-92 opener looked like a coronation, but Chicago did a lot of the work for them: 27 Bulls turnovers became 35 Raptors points, and Chicago went 4 of 36 from three. Kawhi Leonard scored 23 on 5 of 17 shooting in about 24 minutes as he eases back in. Off that one night, the spread has climbed from Raptors by 4.5 to 8.5, and we think one blowout is being read like a scouting report. Washington's opener holds up better than its 6 of 28 from deep suggests. In the 128-116 win over Milwaukee the Wizards scored 70 in the paint, went 32 of 41 at the line and turned it over only 11 times. Anthony Davis had 34 and 12 in 34 minutes, and Trae Young had 20 points and 13 assists with one giveaway, which is how you starve a defense that lives on steals. Nate Bittle is out, so Toronto is thin behind Jakob Poeltl, and Chicago still grabbed 21 offensive rebounds against them. Toronto is the better team and Milwaukee is weaker since the Giannis trade, so we're taking Washington on the moneyline at +285 at BetRivers instead of laying claim to the points. The real hinge is Davis: Washington plays at Chicago on Saturday, and if his minutes get trimmed on the front end of that back-to-back, the paint math gets a lot less friendly. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.OCT23,2026RaptorsWizardsWashington Wizards ML (+285)341370ptsastptsANTHONYDAVISTRAEYOUNGINWIZARDSINWIZARDSWINWIZARDSWINPAINT IN WIN | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Oct 22 | NHL | Flames +1.5 (-140) vs WildMinnesota Wild at Calgary Flames · Thu, Oct 22, 6:00 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisCalgary's 2-6-0 record and 37 goals allowed in eight games look like a crime scene, but the underlying numbers tell a much calmer story. MoneyPuck has the Flames splitting shot attempts at 52 percent and allowing 27.3 expected goals against 37 actual goals. That puts their expected goal differential near minus 3.4, compared with a real one of minus 20. Nearly ten of those goals come down to goaltending, and that is a slump, not a personality. Devin Cooley just stopped 34 of 36 shots in Sunday's 3-2 win over Carolina, and Calgary has had four days at home since then. Minnesota has had much less rest. The Wild lost 4-3 in overtime in Edmonton on Tuesday, this is game two of a five-game road trip, and their blue line is missing Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon and Olli Maatta. That piles minutes onto Quinn Hughes and Jonas Brodin and leaves the depth pairs logging more Iowa bus miles than NHL shifts. The Wild are the better team, and Kirill Kaprizov, with 11 goals in 10 games, is the best player in the building. We are not asking Calgary to win, only to stay within one, and we took that at -140 at BetMGM. The real worry is that Calgary's netminding, .834 for Dustin Wolf and .868 for Cooley, is simply who these goalies are, and one empty net can stretch a one-goal game into two. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT22,2026WildFlamesCalgary Flames +1.5 (-140)4 days34/36savesFLAMESRESTFLAMES'WILD D-MENOUTATHOMECOOLEYSUNDAY | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Oct 22 | NHL | Under 5.5 (+102) at Dallas StarsWinnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars · Thu, Oct 22, 5:00 PM PT · Line 5.5AE's analysisDallas hockey has been played at library volume this month. The Stars allow 22.3 shots a game, the fewest in the league, and Jake Oettinger has handled what gets through with a 1.13 goals-against average, a .945 save percentage and three shutouts in seven starts. The offense isn't in a hurry either. Dallas scores 2.44 goals a game, 26th in the NHL, and Matt Duchene is out after core surgery. Winnipeg arrives on a three-game skid where every loss was by one goal, with three goals total across its last two games. Seven of the Jets' nine games have been decided by one goal, Josh Morrissey is on injured reserve and Connor Hellebuyck stays suspended until Friday. Their best scoring route, a 26.1 percent power play, runs into a Dallas penalty kill that ranks third at 90.6 percent. That's why we're on the under 5.5 at +102 at DraftKings. Two things could make this louder. Oettinger has allowed 14 goals on 23.8 expected, a pace nobody holds forever. Winnipeg also had not named a starter this morning. Stuart Skinner is projected, but if it's Clay Stevenson, who has allowed nine goals in three starts, Dallas gets a friendlier net. Even so, both teams have spent October playing like the scoreboard bills them per goal. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT22,2026JetsStarsUnder 5.5 (+102)22.33rdshotsgoalsSTARSALLOWJETSSCOREDSTARSPERGAMELAST2GAMESPENALTY KILL | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Oct 21 | NHL | Under 6.5 (-140) at Buffalo SabresPhiladelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres · Wed, Oct 21, 4:30 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisPhiladelphia's offense right now is mostly a rumor with a jersey number. The Flyers have 17 goals in 11 games, have not scored more than three in any of them, and average about 21.5 shots a night. The roster has also thinned out. Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett are on injured reserve, Tyson Foerster sat Monday with a hand injury and is day-to-day, and Cam York and Rasmus Ristolainen are out on the blue line. Nine of the Flyers' eleven games have finished with five goals or fewer, and only the 7-0 loss in Pittsburgh got to seven. We took the under 6.5 at -140 at Fanatics, so a six-goal game still cashes. Buffalo is why the number isn't lower. Sabres games have averaged 6.8 goals because Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.860) and Colten Ellis (.864) have treated saves as optional. Philadelphia's starter isn't confirmed either, and Dan Vladar at .889 would be a softer last line than Joseph Woll at .917. What keeps it in check is special teams. Buffalo's power play is 3 for 33 and runs into a Flyers kill at 84.6 percent, which closes the door that usually blows a total open. To get to seven, Buffalo has to do nearly all the scoring itself. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT21,2026FlyersSabresUnder 6.5 (-140)9 of 113 of 33goalsFLYERSINFLYERSGAMESSABRES11GAMESUNDER6GOALSPOWERPLAY | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Oct 21 | NBA | Over 218.5 (-120) at Brooklyn NetsCharlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets · Wed, Oct 21, 4:30 PM PT · Line 218.5AE's analysisOpening night at Barclays, and the defenses look like the softer half of this game. Brooklyn's defensive rating was 119.0 last season, 26th in the league. Nic Claxton is gone, Day'Ron Sharpe is the likely starting center, and Miami put 144 on the Nets in the preseason. Charlotte's defense took its own hit. Grant Williams is out with a hamstring injury, so Naz Reid will play a lot of center: a gift to an offense, less so to whoever he's guarding. Brooklyn's offense looked like a different team in October. Julius Randle and a healthy Michael Porter Jr., who averaged a career-high 24.2 points last season, helped the Nets lead the preseason with a 120.3 offensive rating, 124.3 points a game and 40.9 percent from three. Charlotte is the real question. Kon Knueppel and Coby White are out, and the Hornets averaged 96.5 points in four preseason games without topping a 214 total. Still, Brandon Miller, Grayson Allen, who is cleared and off the injury report, and Reid all scored in double figures last season. Playing that defense, they don't need a fancy play call to get open shots. We took the Over 218.5 at -120 at Fanatics, where most of the market now sits at 219.5. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NBA.OCT21,2026HORNETSCHARHornetsNetsOver 218.5 (-120)40.9% 3PT26th24.2 PPGof 30NETSDEFENSENETSINNETS'PORTERLAST YEARPRESEASONJR.LAST YEAR | Lost | −1.2uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Oct 20 | NHL | Kings +1.5 (-180) at CapitalsLos Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals · Tue, Oct 20, 4:00 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisThe Kings are 0-4-2, the only winless team in the NHL, but their five-on-five play doesn't look like it. They hold 53.9 percent of expected goals and 59.3 percent of high-danger chances at five on five, and they convert just 4.71 percent of those shots, worst in the league. Their 13 five-on-five goals allowed rank sixth-fewest. It's a sound structure with a cursed stick rack. Washington's 5-3-0 rests on the opposite foundation: outshot 237 to 209 on the season while scoring on 13.4 percent of its shots. Tonight Justin Sourdif is out with illness, and Spencer Carbery said he is assuming Pierre-Luc Dubois won't play either, which leaves rookie Ilya Protas and AHL recall Jonny Brodzinski centering two lines. Jet lag isn't an excuse either: the Kings flew in early and practiced at Capital One Arena on Monday. Logan Thompson is the best player in this building, and the Kings' 61.9 percent penalty kill will have to survive Ovechkin, so we took the goal and a half, Kings +1.5 at -180 at FanDuel, over the moneyline. The empty net is the real threat. Saturday's 4-1 loss to Boston was tied 1-1 with 6:24 left before it got padded late, and that ending is the one this ticket can't afford. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT20,2026Los AngelesKINGSWASHINGTONcapijalKingsCapitalsLos Angeles Kings +1.5 (-180)53.9%59.3%KINGS 5-ON-5KINGSEXPECTEDCAPITALSBESTCHANCESGOALS5-ON-5FILL-IN CENTERS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Oct 20 | NHL | Maple Leafs +1.5 (-170) at Blue JacketsToronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets · Tue, Oct 20, 4:00 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisColumbus is trying to build a two-goal lead with a bucket that has a hole in it. The Blue Jackets average 26.0 shots on goal through seven games, 30th in the league. They score on 9.3 percent of them and have two goals in their last 120 minutes. Over their last five games they have not won by more than one: the wins were a shootout over Pittsburgh and a 1-0 overtime game against the Rangers. Their power play is 2 for 17, and it runs into a Toronto penalty kill at 96.9 percent that has allowed one power-play goal all season. At the other end, Toronto's power play is converting 28.6 percent against a Columbus kill at 68.0 percent that is missing defensemen Ivan Provorov and Dante Fabbro. We took Toronto +1.5 at -170 at FanDuel, and the Leafs have lost by two or more only once in 10 games. The worry is real and it comes from the schedule. This is the second night of a back-to-back, Anthony Stolarz starts with an .875 save percentage, John Tavares and Chris Tanev are out, and a late empty-netter can stretch a one-goal game to two. Even so, a two-goal margin takes a kind of offense Columbus has not shown yet. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT20,2026MAPLELEAFSMaple LeafsBlue JacketsToronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-170)30th of 322 of 171 of 10BLUEJACKETSBLUEJACKETSMAPLELEAFSINSHOTSPOWERPLAYLOSTBY2+ | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Oct 20 | NHL | Under 6.5 (-115) at New Jersey DevilsColorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils · Tue, Oct 20, 4:00 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisColorado reaches Newark about 24 hours after a 3-2 loss in Philadelphia that Jared Bednar called sluggish and sloppy. The Avalanche managed 26 shots that night with only 11 forwards dressed, and the bench is just as short tonight with Nicolas Roy, Zachary L'Heureux and Logan O'Connor out. A team that thin on the second night of a back-to-back has every reason to grind and little reason to trade chances. Scott Wedgewood starts in net, and he is no consolation prize: last season he went 31-6-6 with a .921 save percentage and a 2.02 goals-against average. Colorado's 38 goals have come on about 32 expected through nine games on 14 percent shooting, and finishing that hot tends to cool once the legs start filing complaints. Both teams also keep shot totals down, with Colorado allowing 25.8 a game and New Jersey 25.0. The Devils' crease is the real threat. Their starter is unconfirmed, Jake Allen is at .876, Nico Daws is at .857, and a 69.6 percent penalty kill means a couple of Colorado power plays could change the math in a hurry. Even so, we took Under 6.5 at -115 at FanDuel because the lineup scoring four a night is not the one taking the ice tonight. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT20,2026AvalancheDevilsUnder 6.5 (-115)25.03out.921save%shotsAVALANCHEDEVILSALLOWAVALANCHEPERGAMEGOALIELASTYEARFORWARDS | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Oct 19 | NHL | Avalanche -1.5 (+114) at FlyersColorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers · Mon, Oct 19, 4:00 PM PT · Line −1.5AE's analysisColorado comes into Philadelphia controlling about seven of every ten expected goals through eight games, and the group producing that is intact: Lehkonen, MacKinnon and Necas project on top, with Landeskog, Nelson and Kadri behind them and Toews and Makar on the top pair. The Avalanche have 36 goals in eight games. The Flyers have 14 in ten. Philadelphia's injury report is long enough to need a table of contents. Travis Konecny, Cam York and Rasmus Ristolainen are on injured reserve. Tyson Foerster and Sean Couturier couldn't skate Sunday and are game-time decisions, and Owen Tippett is day-to-day after missing Saturday. Even counting all three of them, the Flyers have only twelve healthy forwards, so one more absence shrinks the depth chart to a cocktail napkin and puts a call-up on the ice against MacKinnon. They also recalled defenseman Hunter McDonald to patch the blue line. Colorado's missing pieces, Nicolas Roy and Zachary L'Heureux, are both bottom-six forwards. We took the Avalanche to win by two at +114 on FanDuel, and a trailing Flyers team with its net empty is exactly where this lineup finishes games. The swing factor is the Philadelphia crease. Dan Vladar and Joseph Woll have alternated their last seven starts, and Vladar went Saturday. Woll's .916 is a much tougher wall than Vladar's .889, and neither was confirmed as of Monday morning. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL·OCT19,2026AvalancheFlyersColorado Avalanche -1.5 (+114)3614goalsgoalsFLYERSINAVALANCHEFLYERS ONIN8GAMES10GAMESINJURED RESERVE | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Oct 19 | NFL | Under 51.5 (-105) at San Francisco 49ersWashington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers · Mon, Oct 19, 5:15 PM PT · Line 51.5AE's analysisThe 49ers rank 2nd in the league in offensive EPA per play, and nearly all of that comes from the passing game. That's a problem, because the receiver room looks like a lost-and-found bin. Deebo Samuel is out. Ricky Pearsall is done for the season. De'Zhaun Stribling and Demarcus Robinson are on injured reserve. Mike Evans (ribs, Achilles) didn't practice Thursday, Friday or Saturday, spent the week stretching on a side field and is questionable. Last week at Seattle this group gained 269 total yards, and 21 of its 32 points came off Seahawks turnovers. Washington has Jayden Daniels back but not lead back Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Stefon Diggs is questionable with the hamstring that kept him out in Week 5, and left tackle Laremy Tunsil has been on injured reserve since August 31. Daniels is also 31st in red-zone completion rate at 44.4 percent, and he's facing a 49ers defense that ranks 4th in EPA per play allowed. We took Under 51.5 at -105 at DraftKings. The real threat to this is Washington's defense, which has allowed at least 24 points to every opponent, plus Daniels running against a front missing Nick Bosa and a suspended Dre Greenlaw. Still, an offense this short on targets will settle for three more often than its reputation suggests. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL.OCT19,2026Commanders49ersUnder 51.5 (-105)44.4% comp4 out269yardsDANIELS IN49ERSRECEIVERS49ERSLASTWEEKREDZONE | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Oct 18 | NFL | Under 44.5 (-108) at Indianapolis ColtsTennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 18, 10:00 AM PT · Line 44.5AE's analysisTennessee has scored 58 points in five games, and its game log reads like a thermostat stuck on low: 10, 20, 7, 18, 3. The 3 came last Sunday at home against Houston. The Titans lost 26-3, gained 187 total yards, and Cam Ward threw for 170. Ward averages 179 passing yards a game behind a line with two guards on injured reserve, and the under is 4-1 in Titans games, which have averaged 33.4 combined points. Indianapolis has more offense, but it keeps shrinking. Alec Pierce is on injured reserve, Ashton Dulin is out, Darius Slayton was released Friday without playing a snap for the club, and Tyler Warren, the team leader with 30 catches, is a game-time call with a groin injury. Daniel Jones has 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, so the plan should run through Jonathan Taylor, straight into a Tennessee front allowing 3.54 yards a carry, fourth best in the league. We took the under at -108 at DraftKings. The real danger is a Colts defense giving up 27.6 points a game, soft enough that even this Titans attack could find something. Still, 44.5 needs Tennessee to score about as much as it has managed once all year, and that offense has not earned the benefit of the doubt. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL.OCT18,2026TitansColtsUnder 44.5 (-108)58 pts4th4-1TITANS INTITANS RUNUNDERIN5GAMESDEFENSETITANSGAMES | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Oct 18 | MLS | Over 3.5 (-106) vs Columbus Crew SCColumbus Crew at FC Cincinnati · Sun, Oct 18, 2:00 PM PT · Line 3.5AE's analysisHell is Real comes to TQL Stadium with FC Cincinnati's back line looking like it was put together from the lost and found. Miles Robinson (leg) and Jose Martinez (knee) are both listed out. That leaves Julian Malatini at center back, and he only made his first start in Wednesday's 3-2 home loss to New England. Behind him, Evan Louro has started the last two in goal over Roman Celentano. That is a lot of new faces for a defense that has already given up 68 goals in 28 league games. Cincinnati matches average 4.57 goals this season and 4.85 at TQL, and 19 of the 28 have gone over 3.5, including the last seven in a row. Columbus does its part too: 30 goals conceded in 14 road games, plus 33 shots in Wednesday's 3-1 win over Charlotte, which tied a club record. Neither side has any use for a polite draw. Cincinnati holds the final playoff spot on 36 points, and the Crew sit four back with five games to play. We took Over 3.5 at -106 at BetRivers. The real worry is Columbus's defense, which ranks third in MLS in expected goals allowed. Interim coach Laurent Courtois could also rest attackers with the U.S. Open Cup final on Wednesday. Even so, a rotated Crew lineup should find a defense this improvised very generous with space. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLS.0CT18,2026COLUMBUSFCCINCINNATI96CREWCrewCincinnatiOver 3.5 (-106)6830goalsgoalsCINCINNATIALLOWEDCINCINNATICREW ALLOWEDININ28GAMESOVERSINAROW14ROADGAMES | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Oct 18 | NFL | Buccaneers ML (+124) vs SteelersPittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 18, 10:00 AM PTAE's analysisWe took the Bucs at +124 on FanDuel, and the case starts with a Pittsburgh receiver room that looks like an attendance sheet on the Friday before a long weekend. Michael Pittman Jr. is on injured reserve, Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek are out, and Pat Freiermuth was added Saturday as questionable with a calf. That pushes the Steelers toward Jaylen Warren, straight into a Tampa Bay defense that allows 72.8 rushing yards a game, second in the league. Going the other direction, Bucky Irving has 406 yards this season, 165 of them in the win at Dallas, and he gets a Pittsburgh interior without Derrick Harmon, who went on injured reserve after the Oct. 1 loss at Cleveland. Tampa Bay also has 10 days of rest since that Thursday win, against Pittsburgh's seven, and the Steelers scored 3 and 24 in their two road games, both losses. The quarterback matchup is the real problem. Aaron Rodgers has three straight three-touchdown games, Jalon Daniels makes his third start, and Tampa's line allows sacks on 11.26 percent of dropbacks, 30th in the league, with T.J. Watt and his 4.5 sacks waiting. Antoine Winfield Jr. is out as well. So the plan is the ground game: a rested home team that runs the ball and stops the run keeps a rookie in second-and-short, and that is where undrafted quarterbacks start to look like drafted ones. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL.OCT18,2026SteelersSteelersBuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers ML (+124)2nd3outof 320-2BUCCANEERSSTEELERSSTEELERSONROADRUNDEFENSERECEIVERS | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 17 | MLS | Timbers ML (+105) vs RapidsColorado Rapids at Portland Timbers · Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM PTAE's analysisColorado has two personalities this season, and only one of them has a passport. At home the Rapids are 9-3-3. Away they are 2-2-10, with 13 goals scored and 26 conceded in 14 road matches, and they have lost five straight visits to Portland by a combined 16 to 4 (one of those in Leagues Cup). This trip also finds them short of bodies. Zack Steffen is out after shoulder surgery and Nico Hansen is questionable with a hip problem on the official report. If Hansen can't go, the gloves pass to 19-year-old Adam Beaudry, who has one MLS start this season. Sayed Abu Farkhi is suspended after Wednesday's red card, and Rafael Navarro took his ten goals to St. Louis in a trade in early September. Portland is 7-3-4 at Providence Park with 31 goals in 14 home matches, and sits five points behind Colorado with five games left, so this one is close to win or go home for the Timbers. Portland's own form is a real worry: winless in six, five defenders out, and nobody has yet replaced the goals Kevin Kelsy took to Rangers. Still, a home attack that piles up goals at this ground is meeting a road defense that tends to lose its nerve somewhere over Oregon, and it may have a teenager in goal. We took Portland at +105 with BetRivers. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLS.0CT17,2026COLORADORAPIDSRapidsTimbersPortland Timbers ML (+105)1931yr-oldgoalsRAPIDS'RAPIDSIN14TIMBERSROADGAMESLIKELY KEEPERSCOREDATHOME | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 17 | LIGA MX | Under 2.5 (+125) vs QuerétaroQuerétaro at Santos · Sat, Oct 17, 4:00 PM PT · Line 2.5AE's analysisEstadio Corona has been the quietest room in Torreón this Apertura. Santos Laguna's five home matches have produced six goals in total, 3 scored and 3 allowed. Four of those five stayed under 2.5, and the hosts were held scoreless in three. Even the home half of their four-game winning streak ended 2-1 over Juárez and 1-0 over Pachuca. Now Querétaro arrives having allowed eight goals in ten league games, and on the road it has been close to airtight: 4-1-0 away with 8 scored, 2 conceded and three clean sheets, plus only two goals allowed in its last five matches overall. This is a visitor that is happy to give up the ball and pick its moments on the break, which makes for long afternoons and short highlight reels. The genuine concern is that Santos has found some offense lately, with a 3-2 win at Toluca and a 2-1 comeback at San Luis, and the last three meetings between these clubs all reached three goals. Most of that noise came away from the Corona, though, and Santos has scored just 12 in 11 without Lucas Di Yorio, who has been out since an August tibia injury. We took the under at 125 at BetRivers, and the scoreboard operator might have time to finish a sandwich. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. LIGAMX·OCT 17,2026QUERETARO950CLUBSantLAGUNAQueréetaroSantosUnder 2.5 (+125)2 goals3 of 5goalsSANTOS'5QUERETAROSANTOSSCORELESSHOMEGAMESALLOWEDONROADAT HOME | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 17 | COLLEGE FOOTBALL | Under 58.5 (-110) at James Madison DukesGeorgia State Panthers at James Madison Dukes · Sat, Oct 17, 9:00 AM PT · Line 58.5AE's analysisThe National Weather Service forecast for Harrisonburg on Saturday calls for a north wind of 14 to 17 miles an hour with gusts to 28. That wind lands on the offense least built to handle it. Georgia State lives on chunk plays: Cameran Brown has thrown for 1,157 yards at 8.6 a throw and accounts for about 55 percent of the Panthers' total offense. Down to down, though, their offense ranks 99th nationally in success rate and 129th in rushing success rate. The ground game also has a bad matchup. James Madison ranks 12th in rushing success rate allowed and gives up 102 rushing yards a game, so the Panthers will have to throw, and in gusts like these a deep ball can hang up there like it's waiting for a connecting flight. The Dukes would happily hand George Pettaway the ball (648 yards on 95 carries) and let the clock run, and Georgia State already holds the ball about 33 minutes a game, 17th in the country. Both teams like to grind, so there should be fewer possessions and more punts. We took the under 58.5 at -110 at FanDuel. The risk worth naming is the JMU secondary, which gave up 343 passing yards to Georgia Southern last week. If Brown finds that kind of space between gusts, this gets loud. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. COLLEGEFOOTBALL·OCT17,2026JMUGeorgia StateJamesMadisonUnder 58.5 (-110)28 mph10233 minWIND GUSTSRUSH YDSPANTHERSSATURDAYDUKESALLOWHOLD BALL | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Oct 16 | NHL | Avalanche ML (-192) vs PenguinsPittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche · Fri, Oct 16, 6:00 PM PTAE's analysisColorado has spent seven games turning opponents into a scrimmage squad. The Avalanche own 61 percent of the expected goals and have scored 31 times, tied for the league lead at 4.43 a game. Nathan MacKinnon already has 12 points, and Cale Makar is back on the blue line after missing the Oct. 13 game for the birth of his twins. Pittsburgh shows up 3-3-1, but the record is flattering the hockey. The Penguins hold just 31 percent of the expected goals, and they are 1-3-1 over their last five with 11 goals. That kind of gap tends to close in October, and usually not in the trailing team's favor. The back end is thinner tonight too: Trevor van Riemsdyk and Ryan Graves are both on injured reserve, so a defense that was already getting outchanced now has to manage it with what was left in the spare parts bin. We took Colorado at -192 at DraftKings. The real cost is fatigue. This is the Avalanche's third game in four nights after a home-and-home with Dallas, and neither team has confirmed a starter. That makes the margin smaller, but Colorado is still the much better team on the ice. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL·OCT16,2026PenguinsAvalancheColorado Avalanche ML (-192)4.4312goalsptsAVALANCHEMACKINNONSOFARPENGUINSDONIRPERGAME | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Oct 15 | UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE | Leverkusen ML (-160) vs Lech PoznańBayer Leverkusen at Lech Poznan · Thu, Oct 15, 9:45 AM PTAE's analysisLech Poznań are the Polish champions and have won six straight at home, but a lot of the team's load-bearing walls are missing for Thursday. Both first-choice fullbacks are out: João Moutinho has a broken foot and Robert Gumny has a muscle problem. Centre-back Alex Douglas is rehabbing after ankle surgery. Holding midfielder Radosław Murawski is suspended after his second yellow at Crystal Palace, and Allahyar Sayyadmanesh, with 7 goals and 2 assists in 15 appearances, is out with a groin injury. Pablo Rodriguez scored in each of Lech's last two, and he starts on the bench for showing up late to a team meeting. That leaves a back four pieced together from whatever was left in the kit room. They face a Leverkusen side that has scored at least twice in all seven competitive matches under Carles Martínez, and Patrik Schick has scored in each of the first five Bundesliga games. Lech's last two steps up in class went 0-4 at Palace and 0-3 over 90 minutes at home to AGF Aarhus. We took Leverkusen at -160 at BetMGM. The real worry is Leverkusen's road defending: all eight league goals they have conceded came in three away games. Freiburg visit Sunday, so some rotation is coming too. Even so, a rotated Leverkusen still has more ammunition than the Lech lineup that can actually take the pitch. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. EUROPALEAGUE·OCT15,202619041922BAYERERLeverkusenLeverkusenLech PoznanBayer Leverkusen ML (-160)0-47 of 7goalsLECHTOPLECH LOSTLEVERKUSENAT PALACESCORER OUTSCORED2+ | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Oct 15 | NHL | Under 5.5 (-105) at Ottawa SenatorsNew York Islanders at Ottawa Senators · Thu, Oct 15, 4:00 PM PT · Line 5.5AE's analysisThrough six games the Islanders have spent most of their time in their own end: a 22 percent expected-goals share and a 38 percent Corsi, per MoneyPuck. It's a small sample, but it's an ugly one, and Mathew Barzal is still out with a knee injury. A team that rarely gets into the offensive zone is a poor bet to score three on Linus Ullmark, who is 5-0-0 with a 1.27 GAA and a .948 save percentage. The [link removed] preview lists him as Ottawa's likely starter because Samuel Ersson was in net for Tuesday's 7-2 loss to St. Louis. At the other end, Ilya Sorokin brings a 1.81 GAA and a .934 into a building where the home team is playing its third game in four nights, still without Jake Sanderson, and coming off a loss Travis Green called sloppy. Ottawa should control the puck, but outshooting Sorokin is like shaking a vending machine: lots of effort, not much comes out. That's why we took Under 5.5 at -105 at Caesars. The one real risk is the Ottawa crease. Ullmark was projected but not confirmed as of Thursday morning, and an Ersson start (.829 save percentage) would change the night fast. If Ullmark starts, we expect the kind of game where the third goal feels like a plot twist. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL·OCT15,2026IslandersSenatorsUnder 5.5 (-105)1.275-0-01.81SENATORS'ULLMARKIN NETISLANDERS'SOROKINULLMARKGOALS AGAINSTAVGGOALSAGAINST AVG | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Oct 13 | NHL | Blues ML (+102) at SenatorsSt. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators · Tue, Oct 13, 4:30 PM PTAE's analysisOttawa is 5-1-0, but the calendar has finally sent the bill. Tonight is the Senators' third game in four nights, after an overnight flight home from Newark, where Linus Ullmark made 29 saves in Monday's 4-1 win. That points the crease to Samuel Ersson, who has a .886 save percentage in two appearances this season and posted .870 across 33 games with Philadelphia last year. Ottawa's only loss so far came in his one start, 5-3 at Detroit on the second night of an earlier back-to-back. The blue line in front of him looks like a triage ward. Jake Sanderson (lower body), Artem Zub (knee) and Cameron Crotty (illness) are out, and Nikolas Matinpalo is doubtful after being boarded Monday. That leaves rookies Carter Yakemchuk and Hoyt Stanley and call-up Jorian Donovan soaking up real minutes behind Thomas Chabot. St. Louis, which we took at +102 at BetRivers, has been off since Saturday, owns 61 percent of the shot attempts through five games and lines up Joel Hofer, who has a .930 and a shutout in three starts. Neither club had confirmed a goalie as of this morning, and a Jordan Binnington start (.847 in two outings) would take a real bite out of this case. With Hofer in net, we like a rested team that drives play against a tired one missing half its defense. Ottawa has been winning on Ullmark's back, and tonight that back most likely gets the night off. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL·OCT13,2026BluesSenatorsSt. Louis Blues ML (+102)3out.930Sv%gamesSENATORSBLUES'HOFERSENATORSDEFENSEIN4NIGHTS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Oct 13 | NHL | Kraken ML (+102) at FlyersSeattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers · Tue, Oct 13, 4:00 PM PTAE's analysisPhiladelphia has scored exactly one goal in each of its last four games. The Flyers are 0-5-2 with eight goals in seven games, and the lineup keeps getting thinner. Travis Konecny and Rasmus Ristolainen are on injured reserve. Cam York is day-to-day with an upper-body injury, has missed two straight games and has not been cleared for tonight. Philadelphia's 63 percent Corsi share looks good until you check where the shots come from. On early-season expected goals the Flyers sit at 37 percent and Seattle at 56. Philadelphia keeps launching from the blue line like it's mailing letters to an old address, while the Kraken get the looks that turn into goals. Seattle is 4-2-0, 3-1-0 on the road, and scored 11 goals in its last two games, wins at Detroit and Washington. Its scoring is spread through the forward group, so it doesn't depend on one line winning one matchup. The real risks are Seattle's 39 percent attempt share, which says its finishing will cool, and the goalies. Neither starter is confirmed, and Philadelphia's net looks a lot better with Joseph Woll (.914) than with Dan Vladar (.857). We took Seattle at +102 at DraftKings and want the healthier team that's getting the better chances against a lineup that's losing pieces. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL . OCT 13.2026KrakenFlyersSeattle Kraken ML (+102)11ggoalsFLYERSINKRAKENINFLYERSONIREACHOFLAST4LAST2GAMES | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Oct 12 | NHL | Under 6.5 (-132) at Minnesota WildVegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild · Mon, Oct 12, 5:00 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisEvery Minnesota game this season has ended with five goals or fewer. The totals have gone 4, 5, 5, 5 and 5, and the Wild have allowed 28 shots a night while doing it. Vegas has been even stingier with shots, giving up 24 per game through six. Jesper Wallstedt has started all five Minnesota games at a 1.78 GAA and .936, and Carter Hart is projected for Vegas at 2.25 and .910. The Golden Knights come in with a high-scoring reputation, but a lot of their 22 goals came on 11.1 percent team shooting, and that is a heater, not a personality. Victor Olofsson, who scored four of those goals, is on injured reserve. The real wrinkle is in net. Neither starter is confirmed, and both clubs play again Tuesday, so Adin Hill or Calvin Pickard could start this one and soften what has been a brick-wall goalie matchup. Both power plays are also running above 30 percent, so a night full of whistles is the quickest route to seven. Still, Minnesota keeps squeezing games into 4-1 and 3-2 scores, and that is the game we expect here. At -132 we pay a little extra for the half goal, and that is the point: a 4-2 final is a win for us, not a refund. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL . OCT 12.2026Golden KnightsWildUnder 6.5 (-132)2493.6%2.25shotsgoalsSAVED BYWILD'SGOLDENKNIGHTSGOLDENKNIGHTSWALLSTEDTALLOW AGAMEHARTALLOWS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Oct 11 | NFL | Bengals -7 (-107) at Miami DolphinsCincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 11, 10:00 AM PT · Line −7AE's analysisMiami has played four games and scored 13, 13, 10 and 10, with four touchdowns total. That kind of output gets the scoreboard operator a long lunch break. The last two of those games came after De'Von Achane's torn ACL put him on injured reserve, and on Sunday the Dolphins are also without wideout Caleb Douglas and tight end Justin Joly. Malik Willis has been pressured on 46.9 percent of his dropbacks behind a line that ranks 24th in ESPN's pass block win rate. Now he faces a Cincinnati front with 14 sacks, tied for third in the league. Joe Burrow, meanwhile, draws a secondary missing Reese Taylor and Storm Duck, who was ruled out Saturday when Miami left him on the PUP list. If Miami's offense stays in the teens, Cincinnati mostly has to handle its own business to clear seven, and we like it at -107. The part that can still change is Ja'Marr Chase. He practiced fully Friday, but as of the latest reports he still needed clearance from an independent neurologist to leave the concussion protocol. Tee Higgins is also questionable with a groin injury after a full Friday session. If Chase sits, this gets tighter, so check the 11:30 a.m. ET inactives before following us in. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL.OCT 11.2026BengalsDolphinsBengals -7 (-107)4 TDS46.9%14sacksDOLPHINSINDOLPHINS'BENGALSDEFENSELAST 4GAMESWILLISPRESSURED | Push | 0.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Oct 11 | NHL | Under 6.5 (-132) at New York RangersVancouver Canucks at New York Rangers · Sun, Oct 11, 3:00 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisIgor Shesterkin's season ended Friday in Washington, and the instinct is to expect a shootout at the Garden. We don't see it. The Rangers' six games have averaged 4.67 total goals. They take 23 shots a night and allow 24.2, and that structure comes from the skaters, not only the goalie behind them. Dylan Garand gets the net after a full 2025-26 Hartford season at .896, which is ordinary, but the team in front of him tonight is in no shape to test it. Vancouver is on the second night of a back-to-back, its third game in four nights. The Canucks have scored five goals in their last three games and managed 21 shots in Saturday's 4-1 loss in New Jersey. That is an offense running on hotel coffee and muscle memory. The real risk is at the other end. Vancouver's penalty kill is 12 for 23, and Kevin Lankinen, the likely but still unconfirmed starter, is at .783, so a steady line to the penalty box could turn this into a 6-2 night. Our 6.5 at -132 sits above the 6 and 5.5 hanging at other books, so a 4-2 Rangers win, or even a 4-3 grinder, still cashes. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT11.2026NEWYORKRANGERSCanucksRangersUnder 6.5 (-132)24.2goalsshotsCANUCKSCANUCKSINRANGERSINLAST3SAT LOSSALLOWNIGHTLY | Lost | −1.3uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Oct 11 | NFL | Broncos -3.5 (-105) at ChargersDenver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers · Sun, Oct 11, 1:05 PM PT · Line −3.5AE's analysisJustin Herbert is about to take snaps behind an offensive line that looks like it came off a training camp sign-up sheet. Rashawn Slater is on injured reserve. Joe Alt, Trevor Penning and Kayode Awosika are out. The Chargers say they may start four rookies, including sixth-rounder Logan Taylor at left tackle and fourth-rounder Travis Burke at right tackle in his first career start. That is a rough setup for a quarterback who already has six interceptions, tied for the league lead, and was sacked 12 times in four games while his real tackles were mostly still playing. The receiver room is nearly as empty. Quentin Johnston and Brenen Thompson are out, and Ladd McConkey is questionable after missing practice all week, with Adam Schefter reporting he is not expected to play. Los Angeles is 0-4 with 10 turnovers, tied for the most in the league, and lost 26-14 at home to both Arizona and Las Vegas. Denver is without corners Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, but Jahdae Barron and Kris Abrams-Draine draw a receiving corps that is mostly in street clothes. The catch is Denver's offense, which has 13 first-half points all season, so a three-point win is a real possibility. At -105 we're laying the hook anyway, because Zach Allen, with 19 pressures in four games, gets to spend Sunday working through a line of first-time starters. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL .OCT 11,2026BroncosChargersDenver Broncos -3.5 (-105)12102 outsacksHERBERTCHARGERSCHARGERSIN4GAMESTURNOVERSRECEIVERS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 10 | COLLEGE FOOTBALL | Indiana Hoosiers ML (-300) at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers · Sat, Oct 10, 9:00 AM PTAE's analysisIndiana's ground game is the story in Lincoln, and Nebraska's front just lost another piece. The Hoosiers run for 241.8 yards a game at 6.4 a carry, second nationally, and have turned it over once all season. They meet a Nebraska defense already without Jase Reynolds, Jacob Bower, Gabe Moore and Kahmir Prescott. This morning's final availability report also ruled out Riley Van Poppel, the tackle tied for the team lead with two sacks and four tackles for loss. On the other side, Indiana allows 2.4 yards a carry. That pushes Anthony Colandrea toward throwing into a south wind forecast to gust into the mid-30s to 40, blowing straight down Memorial Stadium's long axis. SP+ rates Indiana fourth at +26.9 and Nebraska 15th at +16.9. The Huskers also give away 9.8 penalties a game against FBS opponents, 133rd in the country. The real wrinkle is the wind itself: fewer possessions make every bounce matter, and Indiana has already muffed two punts and a kickoff this season. So we take the Hoosiers to win outright at -300 rather than ask for a margin in a game where the air is basically playing special teams. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. COLLEGEFOOTBALL.OCT10,2026IndianaNebraskaIndiana Ho0osiers ML (-300)9.8 flags2nd2.4 yardsHOOSIERSRUSHINGCORNHUSKERSHOOSIERSALLOWNATIONALLYPERFBSGAMEPERCARRY | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 10 | COLLEGE FOOTBALL | Arizona Wildcats ML (-160) at West Virginia MountaineersArizona Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers · Sat, Oct 10, 9:00 AM PTAE's analysisWest Virginia's offense is a ground-and-pound machine: about 54 carries a game for 294 rushing yards, with Cam Cook at 652 yards and Michael Hawkins Jr. at 574 with 11 rushing touchdowns. Arizona's defense is built to jam it. The Wildcats allow 79 rushing yards per game and have 18 sacks. Last week Cincinnati arrived averaging 270 yards on the ground and left a 34-7 loss with 74 rushing yards and 227 total. If Arizona wins early downs, Hawkins, with 836 passing yards through five games, has to win from the pocket, and that is not the job description. On the other side, Noah Fifita makes his 40th straight start completing 73.8 percent of his throws. He faces a defense allowing 456.6 yards a game, last in the Big 12, that gave up 86 points in two league games and is without top corner Nick Taylor. The real cost sits on Arizona's own injury report. Receivers Tre Spivey, Giovanni Richardson and Chris Hunter III and tight end Cole Rusk are out, the defense is missing Ezra Funa, Dajon Hinton and Max Harris, and kickoff lands at 9 a.m. on the Tucson clock. That is why we want the moneyline at -160 instead of laying points. A secondary this leaky can make a third-string receiver look like a fifth-year senior. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. COLLEGEFOOTBALL·OCT10,2026ArizonaWest VirginiaArizona Wildcats ML (-160)7973.8%456.6ydsydsWILDCATS RUNWILDCATS'MOUNTAINEERSD PERGAMEFIFITACOMPLETESALLOWPERGAME | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 10 | COLLEGE FOOTBALL | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 (-105) vs Ole Miss RebelsOle Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores · Sat, Oct 10, 12:30 PM PT · Line 9.5AE's analysisNashville gets the leftovers of a tropical system on Saturday. The National Weather Service has a wind advisory in effect through 8 p.m., gusts of 35 to 40 mph and a 100 percent chance of rain, which is bad news for the team leading the SEC at 322.5 passing yards per game. Ole Miss has leaned on Trinidad Chambliss because the run game hasn't carried its share. The backs managed 63 yards against LSU and 84 at Florida. Kewan Lacy is questionable on Friday's SEC report with a shoulder injury, and Pete Golding says he won't take 40 or 50 snaps. Linemen Jalan Chapman and Emanuel Faulkner are out too. That's a fireworks offense showing up on a day when every match is wet. Vanderbilt would rather run anyway, and Ole Miss is last in the SEC against the run at 194.8 yards allowed per game, with roughly 300 rushing yards given up at Florida and 62 missed tackles this season. Jared Curtis missed the Georgia game but is off Friday's report entirely, so he's cleared to go, and the Commodores are 3-0 at home. The real worry is Vandy's offense, which scored 15 at Auburn and 14 at Georgia, and a freshman with a slick ball can hand out short fields. Still, at +9.5 for -105 we only need a close, ugly game, and the forecast is calling for one. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. COLLEGEFOOTBALL.OCT10.2026OleMissOle MissVanderbiltVanderbiltCommodores +9.5 (-105)194.82 out3-0ydsREBELSALLOWCOMMODORESREBELSLINEMENRUSHINGAT HOME | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Oct 9 | COLLEGE FOOTBALL | Under 41.5 (-110) at Washington HuskiesIowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies · Fri, Oct 9, 6:00 PM PT · Line 41.5AE's analysisIowa has scored 16, 20 and 14 points in its three games against Power Four opponents this season, at about 2.6 yards per carry, and Hank Brown played quarterback in all three. Brown is questionable with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder. Kirk Ferentz has said the staff can't count on him, and Jeremy Hecklinski has taken the starter's reps this week. A likely first career start on a six-day turnaround, two time zones west, comes against a Washington defense that hasn't let any opponent top 3.8 yards per carry. Washington's offense has its own problems: 18 of 62 on third down, 15 sacks allowed with 12 in the last two games, and Jayden Limar, Quaid Carr and Jordan Washington all out, which leaves Brian Bonner Jr. carrying the run game into an Iowa defense ranked 7th in adjusted EPA per play. Landen Hatchett's return at center should help the protection, but he hasn't played since last November. The real risk is Iowa's back line. Tyler Brown and Kyler Gerardy are out and Ty Hudkins is questionable, a week after Ohio State threw for 324 yards, so Demond Williams Jr. can still flip a drive with one throw. We're on the under 41.5 at -110, and we expect both punters to get plenty of work. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. COLLEGEFOOTBALL.OCTO9.2026lowaWashingtonUnder 41.5 (-110)203.8 YPCptssacksHUSKIES'HAWKEYES'HIGHHUSKIESVSPOWER4MAXALLOWEDALLOWEDLAST2 | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Oct 9 | COLLEGE FOOTBALL | Under 42.5 (-108) at San Jose State SpartansWyoming Cowboys at San José State Spartans · Fri, Oct 9, 6:00 PM PT · Line 42.5AE's analysisWyoming has played three road games this season and scored 23 points in them: 13 at Colorado State, 10 at Central Michigan, and nothing at all at North Dakota State on Oct. 3. That game produced 162 total yards, and Tyler Hughes went 5-of-14 for 52. Hughes has 2 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions on the year, neither touchdown came against an FBS defense, and starting receiver Deion DeBlanc is out. At 14.2 points a game, 135th of 138 FBS teams, this offense moves the ball like it gets charged by the yard. Only one of Wyoming's five games has cleared 42.5. San Jose State is the better offense because Luke Weaver can throw (11 touchdown passes), but the Spartans average 22.6 points and have one rushing touchdown all season. Jabari Bates has 487 yards and zero scores. Two teams that lean on the run keep the clock moving, and the National Weather Service forecast has evening gusts up to 24 mph, which is bad news for deep shots and long kicks. That is why we like the under at -108. The realistic way over is Hughes handing the ball away: one interception on a short field or a return touchdown puts up points nobody had to drive for. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. COLLEGEFOOTBALL.OCTO9.2026WyomingSanJoseStateUnder 42.5 (-108)1of 524 mph135th of 138COWBOYSGAMESEVENINGCOWBOYSSCORINGOVER42.5WINDGUSTS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Oct 8 | NHL | Flames +1.5 (-120) vs AvalancheColorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames · Thu, Oct 8, 6:00 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisColorado played in Winnipeg last night, outshot the Jets 34-19 and still lost 3-2 on a Kyle Connor goal with 60 seconds left. Now the Avalanche fly in for the back half of a back-to-back, with Scott Wedgewood expected to make his first start of the season, against a Calgary team that has been home and idle since Sunday. The Flames' 0-3 start reads like a police report, three goals scored and 16 allowed, but MoneyPuck's three-game numbers are milder: Calgary owns 55 percent of the shot attempts, turned 6.93 expected goals into three real ones and allowed 16 on 10.14 expected against. That is a team getting pickpocketed by its own finishing and goaltending, not one getting run out of every rink. We are not asking the Flames to win. At -120, the ask is staying within a goal with last change and four days of rest against a favorite on no sleep. The hole in the case is real: Colorado is 14-1-3 against Calgary since 2019-20, the Flames have scored exactly once in every game, and pulling a goalie late can turn a one-goal loss into two. Calgary had not confirmed its starter this morning, with Dustin Wolf expected and Devin Cooley also listed. Rested legs and a cranky home crowd should keep this one close. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT08,2026AvalancheFlamesCalgary Flames +1.5 (-120)55%2ndrI night4 daysFLAMESAVALANCHEFLAMESRESTEDSHOTSHAREBACK-TO-BACK | Lost | −1.2uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Oct 8 | NHL | Under 6.5 (-130) at Buffalo SabresDallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres · Thu, Oct 8, 4:00 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisSeven goals takes a lot of work in a game where nobody is shooting much. Through three games, Dallas has allowed 21.0 shots a game and Buffalo 19.3. The two power plays are a combined 0 for 18 (Dallas 0 for 8, Buffalo 0 for 10), so they've scored about as many power-play goals as the anthem singer. Jake Oettinger, the projected Dallas starter, has stopped 33 of 35 shots in two starts. He comes in on three days' rest behind a group that allowed 2.71 goals a game last season, second fewest in the league. Buffalo's goaltending has been the weak spot, with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen at .784 through two starts. But he was a .910 goalie over 35 games last year, and two rough October nights are a small sample, not a new baseline. The Sabres are also trying to replace Alex Tuch's 33 goals after his June trade to Washington, and Jason Zucker is on injured reserve. Dallas is without Matt Duchene, who is on long-term injured reserve. At 6.5, a six-goal game still wins, and -130 is a fair price for having six on our side. The real risk is the Dallas net: Oettinger is expected, not confirmed, and a Casey DeSmith start would take a lot out of this case. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT08,2026StarsSabresUnder 6.5 (-130)2nd fewest33/3533 goalssavesOETTINGERSTARSGOALSTUCH GONEIN2STARTSALLOWEDLASTYEARFROMSABRES | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Oct 6 | NHL | Under 5.5 (+100) at New York RangersNew York Islanders at New York Rangers · Tue, Oct 6, 4:30 PM PT · Line 5.5AE's analysisBoth goalies tonight are playing like the net shrank over the summer, and that is where this total gets decided. Ilya Sorokin has allowed two goals on 63 shots in two starts, including Saturday's shutout of New Jersey, and last season he gave up one goal on 54 shots in two starts against the Rangers. Igor Shesterkin is at .934 through three starts. Neither offense is pouring rubber on them. The Rangers have 92 shots in four games, 23 a night, and the Islanders are without Mathew Barzal, who is out with a knee injury after leading them with 72 points last season. Last season's four meetings had 5, 2, 7 and 3 goals, and the Rangers scored three goals across all four, which is a lot like playing hockey in snow boots. At even money on Under 5.5, we want this game to look like those. The real risk is in the Islanders' crease. Pete DeBoer had not named a starter after Monday's practice, and Semyon Varlamov, 38 and nearly two years removed from his last NHL game, practiced too. Sorokin is the projected starter. If Varlamov gets the net instead, this case gets a lot weaker. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT06,2026NEWYORKRANGERSIslandersRangersUnder 5.5 (+100).934goalssave%goalsSOROKINALLOWEDSHESTERKINRANGERSLASTIN 2 STARTSIN3STARTSYEARVSISLANDERS | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Oct 6 | NHL | Red Wings ML (-102) vs SenatorsOttawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings · Tue, Oct 6, 4:00 PM PTAE's analysisOttawa reaches Detroit on the second night of a back-to-back, its third game in four nights after Saturday in Toronto and Monday in Boston, and it probably won't have the goalie who has been carrying it. Linus Ullmark left Monday's 4-1 win after a crease collision. Travis Green called that precautionary, and Samuel Ersson is projected to start, although neither club has confirmed its goalie. Ersson posted an .870 save percentage over 33 games with Philadelphia last season. The blue line in front of him is also missing Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub. Detroit has spent two days at home with an 0-2 start built on 57 shots and two goals. Shooting 3.5 percent looks less like an identity and more like a shooting slump that's due to end. John Gibson has stopped 43 of 47, and the Red Wings have yet to allow a five-on-five goal. The real risk is a cleared Ullmark: if he starts, much of this case goes with him. Dylan Larkin and Marco Kasper are game-day calls, so Detroit could be thin at center. Even so, a rested home team at -102 meeting tired legs, a patched-together defense and a backup with last season's numbers is exactly the spot we want. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT 06.2026SenatorsRed WingsDetroit Red Wings ML (-102).8702outsave%gamesSENATORS'SENATORSSENATORSERSSONLASTYEARIN4NIGHTSDEFENSEMEN | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Oct 4 | NHL | Ducks +1.5 (-200) vs PanthersFlorida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks · Sun, Oct 4, 5:00 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisFlorida comes into the Ducks' home opener with its top line held together by tape. Aleksander Barkov went on long-term injured reserve Saturday and will miss at least 10 games, so 37-year-old Lars Eller is now centering Brady Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart. Brad Marchand is out for October, and Gustav Forsling, Florida's top defenseman, is a game-time call. The crease is unsettled too. It's either Jacob Markstrom, who had an .883 save percentage over 44 games with New Jersey last season, or Akira Schmid, who gave up four goals in Thursday's 4-3 overtime loss at San Jose. To beat Anaheim plus a goal and a half at -200, Florida needs a clean two-goal win, and nothing about this lineup looks clean right now. The Ducks opened with a 4-3 win at Vegas on Friday, with Leo Carlsson scoring during a 4-0 start, and they beat Florida both times last season, including a 7-3 night in this building when Cutter Gauthier had a hat trick. The real danger is Anaheim's blue line. Drew Helleson and Ian Moore are hurt, rookies are filling the bottom pairs, Vegas outshot that group 30-20, and Lukas Dostal's .888 last season won't hide much. A Panthers group playing without its captain should find that gap harder to exploit than the name brand suggests. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT04.2026FLORIDAPanthersDucksAnaheim Ducks +1.5 (-200)10+ games7-3goalsPANTHERS'PANTHERSGOALIEDUCKSBEATBARKOVOUTALLOWED THUPANTHERSHERE | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Oct 4 | NFL | Under 43.5 (-106) at Chicago BearsNew York Jets at Chicago Bears · Sun, Oct 4, 10:00 AM PT · Line 43.5AE's analysisCaleb Williams is out, and every report has Tyson Bagent starting for Chicago, though the Bears had not announced it as of Saturday. Bagent has not started a game since November 2023. His career line is 3 touchdowns, 6 interceptions and a 73.0 rating. Theo Benedet is at left tackle because Braxton Jones is on injured reserve. Across from them is a Jets defense that ranks second in yards allowed (258.3 per game) and third against the pass (171). Ben Johnson has the league's top run game at 184.3 yards a game, and we expect him to lean on it, which keeps the clock moving like a meter maid with a quota. The Jets are missing just as much. Breece Hall, Mason Taylor, Adonai Mitchell and left guard Dylan Parham are all out, and the run game was managing 3.3 yards a carry even with Hall. Chicago's defense has allowed 16 points over its last two games. The total climbed back to 43.5 after Case Keenum's 27-point Monday night, and Keenum is now expected to be the backup. Chicago's secondary is the real threat to this. Kyler Gordon and Anthony Johnson Jr. are out and Cam Lewis is doubtful, which gives Geno Smith (75.5 percent completions, no interceptions) room to work. But he's throwing without his starting tight end or his No. 2 receiver, so we'll take the under at -106 and expect plenty of punts. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL.OCT04.2026ETSJetsBearsUnder 43.5 (-106)162ndpts3.3 ydsBEARSALLOWEDJETSINJETSPERCARRYINLAST2YARDSALLOWED | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Oct 3 | NHL | Over 6.5 (+116) at Minnesota WildBoston Bruins at Minnesota Wild · Sat, Oct 3, 5:00 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisBoston reaches St. Paul less than a day after a 4-3 overtime win in Winnipeg on Friday, where Jeremy Swayman made 30 saves on 33 shots. Because he played that game, Michael DiPietro is the expected starter tonight. That is not confirmed yet. Boston skipped its morning skate and Marco Sturm had not named a goalie, and a second straight Swayman start would take much of this case with it. DiPietro was excellent for Providence last season (34-8-1, 1.91 GAA, .930), but his NHL record is four games with a 5.01 GAA and a .780 save percentage. Tonight would be his first NHL start since January 2022. He also gets the net without Charlie McAvoy, who serves the third game of a six-game suspension. Across from him are Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy and a power play that ranked third in the league last season at 25.2 percent, up against a Boston penalty kill that finished in the bottom third. Minnesota's blue line is short a pillar too: Brock Faber is on injured reserve after surgery for a skull fracture. The two teams' meetings last season produced 8 and 9 goals. Jesper Wallstedt (.915 last season, 19 of 20 in the opener) is the real obstacle. Still, two patched-up blue lines and a crease handed to a goalie whose NHL résumé is old enough for kindergarten make the Over at +116 worth backing. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT 03.2026BruinsWildOver 6.5 (+116)8&9.78025.2%goalssaveBRUINS-WILDBRUINS'WILDPOWERPLAYLASTSEASONDIPIETROIN NHLLASTSEASON | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Oct 2 | NHL | Under 6 (-110) at Detroit Red WingsNew York Rangers at Detroit Red Wings · Fri, Oct 2, 3:30 PM PT · Line 6AE's analysisDetroit opens its season at home with a guest list that reads like half the invitations got lost in the mail. Dylan Larkin, who scored 34 goals and 67 points last season, will miss the first two games with an upper-body injury, Todd McLellan said Thursday. Patrick Kane signed with Chicago in July after scoring 16 goals for Detroit, and James van Riemsdyk is gone too, so Andrew Copp and J.T. Compher project as the top two centers. The Rangers arrive on the second night of a back-to-back, their third game in four nights. They managed 24 shots in Tuesday's 3-0 loss at Boston and 25 in Thursday's 5-1 win over Tampa Bay. One of those five goals was Igor Shesterkin shooting into an empty net, which makes a great highlight but isn't much of an offensive system. The real risk for the Under is in that same crease. Shesterkin played Thursday, so the expected starter is call-up Dylan Garand, who had a .896 save percentage in 36 AHL games last season. That start isn't confirmed yet, and Detroit is also without Simon Edvinsson on defense. That is why we want 6 and not 5.5. Hockey loves a 4-2 final, often finished off by a late empty-netter, and at 6 that score just gives our money back. At -110 we're backing two thinned-out attacks, with some padding if it lands right on six. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL .OCT 02.2026NEWYORKRANGERSRangersRed WingsUnder 6 (-110)6716ptsgoalsgoalsRED WINGS'RED WINGSRANGERSLARKIN OUTLOSTKANESCORED TUE | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Oct 1 | NHL | Flyers +1.5 (-172) at DevilsPhiladelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils · Thu, Oct 1, 4:00 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisPhiladelphia's opener Wednesday was a 7-0 home loss to Pittsburgh in which the Flyers were outshot 38-19, a night that looked less like hockey and more like a fire drill nobody showed up for. Tonight's Devils home opener is priced as if that night were a diagnosis. We read it as one bad evening from a team that put up 98 points last season and beat New Jersey all three times they met, 6-3, 5-3 and 5-1, the last two at Prudential Center. Joseph Woll is expected in the Flyers crease after sitting Wednesday, and he stopped 44 of 47 shots in the preseason, including a 28-save shutout of Boston. New Jersey is rested and has a healthy Jack Hughes, but the Devils open without defenseman Johnathan Kovacevic, Connor Brown, Nick Bjugstad and Seamus Casey. Amadeus Lombardi is making his NHL debut on the fourth line, and Jake Allen (.903 last season) takes his first turn as the undisputed starter at 36. That is a team built to win this more often than not, and to win by one more often than by two. The plus 1.5 at -172 pays on a Flyers win, an overtime loss or a one-goal regulation loss. The real threat is tired legs late: a one-goal Devils lead, an empty net, and a two-goal final the scoreboard didn't earn. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL .OCT 01.2026FlyersDevilsPhiladelphia Flyers +1.5 (-172)3-044/47saves4 outFLYERSVSFLYERS'WOLLDEVILS LINEUPDEVILSLASTYEARINPRESEASON | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Oct 1 | NHL | Under 6.5 (-125) at Nashville PredatorsMinnesota Wild at Nashville Predators · Thu, Oct 1, 5:00 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisBoth clubs spent the summer trading goal scorers for forwards who would rather ruin your evening than make highlights, and opening night at Bridgestone is the first look at that plan. Minnesota sent Marco Rossi out in last December's Quinn Hughes trade and lost Mats Zuccarello and Vladimir Tarasenko in free agency. That leaves Kirill Kaprizov carrying the scoring, with the unproven Danila Yurov centering him. Nashville scored 2.95 goals a game last season, 20th in the league. Since then it has traded Luke Evangelista and brought in Jack Drury, Alex Kerfoot and Ross Colton, a group about as flashy as a parking garage. The Preds then finished the preseason by getting shut out 6-0 by Carolina on Sept. 26. In goal, Jesper Wallstedt takes over the Wild's No. 1 job after posting a .916 last season. Juuse Saros is expected but not yet confirmed for Nashville, and he owns a .921 save percentage over 16 career starts against Minnesota. Three of last season's four meetings finished with five goals or fewer. The real crack is Brock Faber, out indefinitely after skull surgery. That removes his 24:41 a night from Minnesota's blue line and moves Jared Spurgeon up to the top pair. It's a genuine leak, but it doesn't change the overall picture, and at -125 we only need six goals or fewer from two rosters built to grind. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL.OCT01,2026WildPredatorsUnder 6.5 (-125)2.95goalsgoalsPREDSINPREDSAVGWILDLASTSEASONPRESEASONFINALEFORWARDSGONE | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Sep 30 | NHL | Islanders +1.5 (-225) at Maple LeafsNew York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs · Wed, Sep 30, 4:30 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisToronto is playing its second game in two nights, while the Islanders have had four days off before their opener. That rest gap comes with a mismatch in goal. Ilya Sorokin is reported as New York's opening-night starter, and he was last season's Vezina runner-up with a .906 save percentage and a league-leading seven shutouts. Anthony Stolarz is Toronto's expected starter because Sergei Bobrovsky played Tuesday. Stolarz is coming off a career-low .893 in a season interrupted by a nerve injury and a groin strain. Tuesday's 3-2 home loss to Montreal didn't settle many nerves either. New coach Jim Hiller said "most of the chances they got, we gave them," and blamed defensive-zone turnovers by a roster with roughly ten new faces. On tired legs, that group is still learning where everyone stands in its own zone, and that makes it hard for them to pull away from a rested Sorokin. At -225 we don't need New York to win, only to stay within a goal. The real cost is Mathew Barzal, out with knee inflammation after leading the Islanders with 72 points. Without him the attack is thin, so this probably stays low-scoring, and a late empty-netter in a one-goal game is the likeliest way it slips past us. Even so, a low-scoring game with Sorokin in net tends to stay close. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL·SEP30,2026TORONTOMAPLELEAFSIslandersMaple LeafsNew York lslanders +1.5 (-225)2ndr.906.893savenightsaveISLANDERS'MAPLE LEAFSMAPLELEAFS'SOROKINBACK-TO-BACKSTOLARZ | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Sep 30 | MLB | Under 6.5 (+104) at New York YankeesBoston Red Sox at New York Yankees · Wed, Sep 30, 5:00 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisBoston has to win in the Bronx tonight, and its lineup was already running on the spare tire. The Red Sox scored 71 runs in 24 September games, the fewest in baseball. The Game 2 card posted for tonight has neither Roman Anthony, whose right hand flared up on a check swing in Game 1, nor Jarren Duran. That lineup draws Max Fried, who has allowed Boston one run in 11.2 innings over two starts this year and held them to a .146 average. New York is short a bat too, because Aaron Judge is off the Wild Card roster with a calf strain. Sonny Gray (2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) gave the Yankees three earned runs in 13.2 innings across two starts this season, and both starters come in on seven days' rest. The late innings look just as stingy. Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock and Garrett Crochet all sat out Game 1 for Boston, and David Bednar never left the Yankee bullpen. The building is the real pushback. Yankee Stadium's short porch gets a lefty-heavy Yankee lineup against a right-hander, and a plain 4-3 final is enough to beat us. Aside from that porch, tonight belongs to the pitchers, and we like the Under at +104. Both scoreboards should expect a quiet shift. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP30,2026Red SoxYankeesUnder 6.5 (+104)30th of 302.72runERARED SOXFRIEDVSREDREDSOXSOX THIS YEARRUNSINSEPTSTARTERGRAY | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Sep 30 | NHL | Under 6.5 (-125) at Colorado AvalancheLos Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche · Wed, Sep 30, 7:00 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisLos Angeles scored ten goals in seven games against Colorado last season, across three regular-season meetings and a four-game playoff sweep, and never scored more than two in any of them. At that rate a dripping faucet looks ambitious. Six of the seven finished with six total goals or fewer. The Kings open the season in Denver with the same scoring problem and fewer ways to fix it. They were 29th in 2025-26 at 2.68 goals per game, Anze Kopitar has retired, and Kevin Fiala is on injured reserve after another procedure on the leg he broke at the Olympics in February. Colorado allowed a league-low 197 goals and had the top penalty kill at 84.6 percent. The Avalanche are short up front too. Logan O'Connor and Zach L'Heureux are out, and defenseman Noah Juulsen plays fourth-line wing in an 11-forward lineup, so expect heavy minutes for MacKinnon and Necas and little pressure behind them. That is why we are on the under 6.5 at -125. The real danger sits in the Kings' own end. Their penalty kill ranked 30th at 74.6 percent, and Peter Laviolette's first game behind their bench brings a faster, more aggressive system. Colorado scored five twice in those seven meetings, and the 5-2 game in December was the only one that went over. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NHL·SEP30,2026LosAngelesKINGSKingsAvalancheUnder 6.5 (-125)29th6 of 71stMEETINGSKINGSOFFENSEAVALANCHEUNDER6.5LAST YEARDEFENSELASTYEAR | Lost | −1.2uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Sep 29 | WNBA | New York Liberty ML (+140) vs Minnesota LynxMinnesota Lynx at New York Liberty · Tue, Sep 29, 5:30 PM PTAE's analysisNew York is +140 at home with a 1-0 series lead, and the Liberty have now beaten Minnesota twice at Target Center in ten days: 93-81 on Sept. 18 and 91-75 in Sunday's Game 1. Breanna Stewart was the entire weather system on Sunday, posting 34 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists on 11 of 18 shooting and 10 of 12 at the line, while Napheesa Collier and Natasha Howard both fouled out trying to guard her. These Lynx are not the 33-11 team on the standings page. Minnesota went 2-4 over its last six regular-season games with a minus-4.7 net rating while New York ran plus-11.3 over the same stretch, and Collier has played only 16 regular-season games since double ankle surgery. Some of Sunday will not travel: 13 of 25 from three is a hot hand, not a plan, and the Liberty gave the ball away 21 times against the league's No. 2 steals team. Jonquel Jones is off the injury report but was held to 26 minutes and 8 points on a sore ankle in Game 1. Minnesota also went 18-4 on the road, so Barclays holds no ghosts for them. But the Lynx still need an answer for Stewart that does not involve fouling, and two tries in their own gym have not produced one. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. WNBA.SEP29.2026LynxLibertyNew York Liberty ML(+140)34 pts1-0LIBERTY ATSTEWARTLIBERTYLYNXIN10DAYSINGAME1SERIESLEAD | Won | +1.4uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Sep 27 | MLB | Orioles +1.5 (-162) at YankeesBaltimore Orioles at New York Yankees · Sun, Sep 27, 10:05 AM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisNew York has nothing left to chase. The Yankees clinched the No. 4 seed and open the Wild Card Series Tuesday, so game 162 goes to rookie Elmer Rodriguez (0-3, 5.40 ERA, 16 walks in 26.2 innings) while Carlos Rodon rests for October. Aaron Judge is on the injured list with a calf strain, Giancarlo Stanton and Trent Grisham are out too, and the leverage arms are staying in bubble wrap. Baltimore, eliminated but engaged, runs Shane Baz and its best available nine behind Pete Alonso, who has played all 162 and sits at 43 homers. Then the weather tips it: a nor'easter moved first pitch up to 1:05, and cold, wet air with the wind pushing in turns the short porch into just a wall, the kind of afternoon where fly balls come down with a thud instead of a curtain call. Low scoring keeps margins to a run or two, which is the whole point of a run and a half. The honest catch: Baz is capped near 55 pitches and has been rough against this lineup, so the middle innings fall to a thin pen. At -162, cheaper than the -184 and worse posted around the market, staying within one is a fair ask. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB . SEP 27.2026OriolesYankeesBaltimore Orioles +1.5 (-162)3 out5.4043 HRERAYANKEES'YANKEEBATSORIOLES'RODRIGUEZSTARTSRESTINGALONSOBAT | Void | — | Post → |
| Sun, Sep 27 | MLB | Under 7 (+105) at Philadelphia PhilliesTampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies · Sun, Sep 27, 11:30 AM PT · Line 7AE's analysisThe last day of the season sets up quietly in Philadelphia. The Phillies are win-and-in, so they are running a full October pitching plan: Zack Wheeler, who has held opponents to three runs or fewer in five straight starts, with the leverage arms rested behind him. Jhoan Duran, Alex McFarlane and Andrew Painter all sat Saturday while the mop-up crew soaked up a 12-1 loss, and Jesus Luzardo was activated to piggyback innings, so the pitchers who matter are fresh. That flips the usual 'starter exits, total climbs' script. Tampa Bay has already locked the AL's top seed and brings a lineup outslugging its actual contact all year, now staring at Wheeler's 10.85 strikeouts per nine. Philadelphia's bats are the other half: one run across the last two games, no Luis Arraez with a left ankle sprain, and a north wind near 20 gusting to 35 blowing straight in, with rain around, the kind of afternoon where fly balls hang up and settle into a glove. Nick Martinez can undo this: he lives on soft contact at a park that rewards power, and one Schwarber or Harper mistake dents the number fast. Still, books are juicing the over to -115 while we get plus money on the under. Seven is a number this game has to earn. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP27,2026TBRaysPhilliesUnder 7 (+105)10.85 per 920-35 mphWHEELERPHILLIESWIND BLOWINGINSTRIKEOUTSARMSRESTED | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Sep 27 | MLB | Under 9.5 (+100) at AthleticsHouston Astros at Athletics Athletics · Sun, Sep 27, 12:05 PM PT · Line 9.5AE's analysisThe Athletics reach Game 162 with a lineup that reads like a spring-training B squad: Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Jacob Wilson and Max Muncy are all shelved, and what was left scored two runs on Saturday. Houston is treating this one like October, because a win clinches the AL West, and that shapes how it gets pitched. Peter Lambert opens on two days' rest for maybe a couple of innings, then hands to a bullpen that is fully rested because Hayden Wesneski chewed through seven innings on 82 pitches Saturday for exactly this purpose. A team chasing a division and deploying its best arms early against a lineup stitched from September call-ups is a quiet-scoreboard script. The number helps: 9.5 only climbed there after Houston's 13-2 blowout, one loud night doing the inflating, and it sits at even money. We see the other side clearly. Sutter Health Park plays lively, the afternoon warms into the low 80s, both clubs are running bullpen games behind shaky openers, and this series has already piled up 12, 11 and 15 runs. Those are real. Still, nine and a half is a heavy lift for one true lineup and one placeholder. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP27,2026AstrosAthleticsUnder 9.5 (+100)2 runs5outwinASTROSA'SSCOREDSATA'SSLUGGERSCLINCH WEST | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Sep 26 | MLB | Cardinals +1.5 (-127) at BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers · Sat, Sep 26, 4:10 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisMilwaukee stopped playing for anything on Thursday. The Brewers hit 101 wins and locked up the National League top seed and home field on September 24, so this final Saturday is batting practice with a scoreboard attached. That reshapes the pitching plan. Dustin May takes the ball, and his manager has already said this will not be a long outing, which fits a rough month: a 7.84 ERA over his last seven starts with fewer than five innings in six of them. It is less a start than a tune-up, the kind of appearance that ends before the concourse beer line does. St. Louis answers with Quinn Mathews, the only arm in this game pointed the right way, five straight outings of length and quality at a 3.65 ERA, with every reason to work deep in his season finale. One real worry lives in the late innings: the Cardinals bullpen is gassed after Friday, with Cooper Hjerpe at 74 pitches over three days before being optioned, and Milwaukee's rested relievers can stretch a one-run game into a three-run one in a hurry. That is why this is a lean, not a shove. BetRivers has the best price on the number at -127, and +1.5 only asks a coasting home team not to win by two. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP26,2026CardinalsBrewersSt. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-127)7.84 ERA6 of 73.65 ERAMAY LASTMAY UNDERMATHEWSLAST57 STARTS5INNINGS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Sep 26 | MLB | Reds +1.5 (-143) at Toronto Blue JaysCincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays · Sat, Sep 26, 12:07 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisToronto is being asked to win a footrace on fumes. Trey Yesavage makes just his second start since left knee meniscus surgery, and his first one back on September 21 lasted two innings and 40 pitches. With both clubs long since eliminated, there is no reason to stretch him past a cameo, which quietly turns Saturday into a bullpen day wearing a starter's jersey. The problem is what is behind him: eight Blue Jays starters are on the injured list, Friday's fill-in Jose Soriano coughed up five runs in three innings, and the bridge arms are gassed, with Brendan Cellucci at 44 pitches over 3.1 innings and Chad Dallas at 33, all inside three days. Someone has to cover the middle innings, and nobody available is fresh. Meanwhile Toronto has scored 4.03 runs a game, its thinnest mark since 1982, and the contact quality says even that flatters them, while Cincinnati grades out with the better expected bats and Elly De La Cruz coming off a 30-30 season. Rhett Lowder is the genuine hazard here, a 6.01 ERA with a grisly 12.33 over his last four starts, so an early Toronto lead is live. But winning by two behind a two-inning starter and a patchwork pen is a tall ask, and at -143 the run and a half lets the Reds lose the game and still come out ahead. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP26,2026RedsBlue JaysCincinnati Reds +1.5 (-143)4.03runsBLUEJAYSBLUEJAYS'BLUEJAYSYESAVAGEINNINGSFRESHARMSWORSTSINCE82 | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Sep 26 | MLB | Angels +1.5 (-118) at Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners · Sat, Sep 26, 6:40 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisStart with the building. T-Mobile Park is one of baseball's great run vacuums, a 92 park factor where offense goes to nap, and the market has tonight's total sitting all the way down at seven. When scoring is that scarce, blowouts get scarce with it, and a run and a half does real work. Seattle's ninth inning is also thinner than it was a week ago: Andres Munoz, 28 saves, was shut down for the year Friday with knee inflammation, so late leads now run through a committee of Jose Ferrer and Seranthony Dominguez instead of a settled closer. The Angels have already grabbed the first two here, 6-4 and 7-5, and at 62-98 they are chasing something concrete, one more win keeps them clear of the first 100-loss season in franchise history. Ryan Johnson held these Mariners to a run over six innings on September 15; Kade Anderson got tagged for five in 4.1 by this same lineup the day before. The honest wrinkle: Johnson's tidy September rides a strand rate that will not hold, and Anderson is the better arm coming off seven scoreless at Coors, so a two-run Seattle win is live. We took plus 1.5 at -118, a friendlier price than the -135 and worse posted elsewhere. In a park this stingy, close is the default, and close is all this number needs. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP26,2026AngelsMarinersAngels +1.5 (-118)28savesrunsMARINERSANGELS WON HEREGAMETOTALLOWCLOSERLOST | Lost | −1.2uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Sep 25 | MLB | Rays +1.5 (-141) at PhilliesTampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies · Fri, Sep 25, 3:40 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisPhiladelphia comes home for the final weekend still chasing a clinch, which reads like motivation until you watch the bats. The Phillies scored exactly one run in each of their last two home losses to Milwaukee, they rank 21st in September at 4.15 runs a game, and Kyle Schwarber is hitting .153 for the month. On top of that, NL batting leader Luis Arraez rolled his left ankle Thursday; X-rays were negative and Don Mattingly called himself hopeful, but he was not cleared heading into Friday's reassessment, and a lineup this quiet cannot afford to misplace a bat. Freddy Peralta's 4.56 season ERA is a relic: across his last five starts he owns a 0.94 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP over 28.2 innings, and Tampa Bay is treating this as a genuine playoff tune-up, not a two-inning wave. Cristopher Sanchez is the best arm on the field, but an ace only clears the run line if his teammates hand him room, and room is what this offense has stopped printing. The honest catch: the Rays have clinched everything, so a half-depth lineup makes a comfortable Phillies win easier to picture. With the total at 6.5, a run and a half is a lot of moat in low water. We like catching it at -141, a kinder number than most of the board offers. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP25,2026TBRaysPhilliesTampa Bay Rays +1.55(-141).15321st of 300.94 ERASCHWARBERPHILLIESPERALTALAST5INSEPTSEPTRUNS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Sep 25 | MLB | White Sox ML (-200) vs RockiesColorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox · Fri, Sep 25, 4:40 PM PTAE's analysisColorado limps into Chicago at 57-102, dragging a 25-53 road record into a building where the home team still has something to play for. That last part is the spine here. The White Sox clinched a playoff berth Thursday with a 9-1 win over Kansas City, but they sit one game back of Cleveland in the AL Central with three to play and hold the tiebreaker, so the division is genuinely live. That is why Will Venable lined up Sean Burke for this opener instead of a bullpen day and a victory lap. Burke carries a 3.40 ERA with better than a strikeout per inning across 167 innings; Tomoyuki Sugano answers at 5.36 while missing almost nobody, and pitching to contact against a lineup with real stakes is a plan with no parachute. The pen math leans the same way: Colorado burned Zach Agnos (53 pitches) and Jimmy Herget (49) on mop-up duty this week, so their late innings are running on fumes. At -200 we are laying less than the -225 and worse posted elsewhere. The one thing that softens it: champagne mornings are real, lineups were not posted, and a regular or two could get a breather. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP25,2026RockiesWhite SoxChicago White Sox ML (-200)9-13.40ERA25-53SOXCLINCHEDSOX'BURKEROCKIESONROADTHURSDAYSTARTS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Sep 25 | MLB | Astros -1.5 (+102) at AthleticsHouston Astros at Athletics Athletics · Fri, Sep 25, 6:40 PM PT · Line −1.5AE's analysisHouston walked into West Sacramento tied atop the AL West with three to play, holding the tiebreaker on a 9-4 season series, so one dugout is playing for October and the other is already reading the offseason travel brochures. The pitching does most of the talking here. Hunter Brown brings a 3.26 ERA and 10.59 K/9, while Jacob Lopez has been getting the door kicked in: 19 earned runs over his last 12.1 innings, including a Sept 19 start against Cleveland where he recorded eight outs and gave up ten runs. Behind him the A's are missing Rooker, Kurtz, Wilson, Soderstrom and Muncy, which leaves the lineup asked to keep this close held together with spare parts. The honest catch is the late innings. Brown has been averaging about 5.4 innings, Houston leaned hard on Ullola (68 pitches) and Sousa (53) this week, and Sutter Health Park has played as a launch pad in its first year (110 overall, 124 home run factor), so a tidy lead can get loud in a hurry. Lopez also held this same lineup to one run over six on Aug 22. We still like Houston by two, and the run line pays plus money at +102. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP25,2026AstrosAthleticsHouston Astros -1.55(+102)10r3.26runs5 outERAA'SLOPEZASTROS'BROWNA'SHITTERSSEPT19 | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Sep 24 | WNBA | Fever ML (-135) at LynxIndiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx · Thu, Sep 24, 5:00 PM PTAE's analysisMinnesota has nothing left to chase and spent Tuesday proving it. The Lynx had already locked up the No. 1 seed, so Cheryl Reeve sat her four healthy starters, Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Natasha Howard, for the entire second half of a 96-77 loss to this same Fever team, saying flatly she was saving legs and not chasing a win with the playoffs opening Sunday. Leading scorer Olivia Miles, 19.8 points a game, was ruled out Wednesday with a calf strain for the second game running, because Reeve will not gamble a starter three days from the postseason. Indiana's Thursday still counts: win and the Fever lock the No. 5 seed and a first-round date with Atlanta, lose and they can slide to No. 6 and a road series against one of the league's two best teams. Caitlin Clark carries her chronic back designation and her habit of shrugging it off, going 27 points, nine assists and seven rebounds in Tuesday's rout. The wrinkle worth respecting is that no rest paperwork was filed on Collier and company, and a proud team that just got embarrassed at home could choose one honest rhythm game, so this is a lean, not a hammer. But the Lynx are already unpacking their playoff bags while Indiana still has a clock to punch, and BetMGM's -135 is the shortest number anywhere for the side that actually needs the win. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. WNBA·SEP24,2026FeverLynxIndiana Fever ML (-135)19.8 pPG27ptsLYNXLYNX'MILES OUTCLARKINROUTSTARTERSSAT | Lost | −1.4uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Sep 24 | MLB | Under 6.5 (+100) at New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees · Thu, Sep 24, 4:05 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisBoth dugouts already got what they came for. Tampa Bay clinched the AL East and the No. 1 overall seed Tuesday, and New York is locked into the top wild card, so this is a September afternoon with nothing left to earn and every reason to keep everyone in one piece. Set that against Cam Schlittler, who is not resting a thing: he takes the ball at 1.94 with a 0.91 WHIP, chasing the first sub-2.00 ERA by a Yankee since Ron Guidry in 1978, and an ace handed a lineup of understudies is exactly where a number like that goes to get prettier. New York's bats are thinned too, with Aaron Judge (calf), Giancarlo Stanton (60-day IL) and Trent Grisham (hamstring) all out and Boone flagging Bellinger, Austin Wells and Spencer Jones for rest, while cool 64-degree air keeps the short porch honest. At +100 there is no juice to pay for the quiet game. The catch is real: 6.5 is the lowest total on the board, the Rays pen is down five arms, and one loud inning in a 113 park wipes it out. That keeps this a lean, but rested backups against an ace protecting his season is the profile of a slow afternoon. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP24,2026TBRaysYankeesUnder 6.5 (+100)1.94E3outERA3 restSCHLITTLERYANKEEBATSYANKEESFLAGGEDSTARTS | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Sep 24 | MLB | Over 7 (+100) at Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners · Thu, Sep 24, 6:40 PM PT · Line 7AE's analysisThe Angels are handing the ball to Grayson Rodriguez, and he is the entire engine of this over. He carries a 5.96 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP across 19 starts, roughly a baserunner and a half an inning, which is less a pitching line than a guided tour of the basepaths, and he averages just 4.9 innings a start. That drops the middle innings on an Angels bullpen already down Robert Stephenson, Jack Kochanowicz, Samy Natera Jr. and George Klassen to the injured list. Waiting on all that traffic is Seattle's real lineup, not a September stand-in crew: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Josh Naylor are all in, and their contact quality has outrun their results for weeks. Five or six runs from the home side alone is a live outcome against the softest run prevention they will see this month. The catch is honest and it sits in the other dugout. T-Mobile Park is a 92 run environment on a 57 degree night, and Bryan Woo at home has been genuinely stingy, so the Angels could go quiet and leave Seattle to carry the number by itself. We will take that at a total of just 7, where a push simply hands the stake back, and even money is a fair price for a night likely to read Rodriguez leaking runners while Seattle cashes them in. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB.SEP24,2026AngelsMariners0ver7 (+100)5.96ERAbatsSEATTLERODRIGUEZSTARTSANGELSPENOUTREGULARSIN | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Sep 23 | MLB | White Sox ML (-112) at RoyalsChicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals · Wed, Sep 23, 4:40 PM PTAE's analysisKansas City hands Seth Lugo the ball for the last time this year, and the timing is unkind: a 5.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP across 169 innings, with four home runs served up to Houston on September 17. Lately he is a five-and-dive starter, which matters because of what waits behind him. The Royals bullpen is running on fumes. Carlos Estevez is done for the season after shoulder surgery, and long man Tony Gonsolin threw 63 pitches Tuesday, so once Lugo hits the showers around the fifth, Kansas City has to patch four innings together with whatever is left in the drawer. Chicago's answer is the tandem that has quietly clicked all month: Bryan Hudson opens and Erick Fedde handles the bulk, and Fedde has allowed just five earned runs over his last 28.2 innings, roughly a 1.57 ERA across six outings. The offenses are close to a wash, so this comes down to which staff buckles, and only one is stapled together with rehab notes. One honest caveat: Chicago emptied its own leverage arms in Tuesday's 14-11 shootout, Richards at 55 pitches over three days, so a tight ninth could wobble. The price is no gift at -112. Still, a club chasing October with a real bulk starter in form, against a team auditioning relievers in late September, is the argument we trust. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB.SEP23,2026KCWhite SoxRoyalsChicago White Sox ML (-112)5.061.57ERAERAROYALSPENMUSTLUGO FINALSTARTFEDDELAST6COVERINNINGS | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Sep 22 | MLB | Over 9.5 (+101) at AthleticsLos Angeles Angels at Athletics Athletics · Tue, Sep 22, 6:40 PM PT · Line 9.5AE's analysisThe pitching plans here are less plans than relay handoffs. Brady Basso opens for the A's, but he is a bulk arm in a starter's jersey: his season high is 68 pitches, and lately he rarely sees the fourth. Figure three innings, maybe a hair more. Across from him, Yusei Kikuchi has walked 12 hitters in 14.1 September innings and hasn't finished the fifth in either of his last two starts. That leaves roughly ten of the eighteen innings to relief, which matters because these are the wrong two pens to lean on: the A's sit at a 5.32 bullpen ERA, worst in baseball, and the Angels are sixth worst at 4.32. All that traffic checks into Sutter Health Park, one of the friendliest run yards in the league this year, grading about 15 percent above average tonight under clear 77 degree skies with almost no wind. The honest catch: neither lineup is scary right now. The A's are without Max Muncy and four more regulars, the Angels are down five of their own, and both have hit under .220 for two weeks. But cheap runs do not need great hitters, they need walks and bad relievers in a park where fly balls carry. At plus money, Over 9.5 asks the bullpen doors to swing open by the fourth, and both are practically unlatched. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP22,2026AngelsAthleticsOver 9.5 (+101)4.32e125.32ERAERAwalksANGELSPENA'SPENWORSTKIKUCHIIN SEPT6THWORST | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Sep 22 | MLB | Under 7.5 (-113) at San Francisco GiantsMinnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants · Tue, Sep 22, 6:45 PM PT · Line 7.5AE's analysisBoth dugouts look like September call-up showcases, and that is most of the story. San Francisco is without Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Jung Hoo Lee, Harrison Bader and rookie Bryce Eldridge, leaving Luis Arraez surrounded by names whose rookie cards have not been printed yet. Minnesota is thinner too, missing Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach and Kaelen Culpepper. Into that steps Taj Bradley, who has punched out 199 in 172.1 innings, a 10.39 per nine, and just ran off nine strikeouts over seven frames against the Angels on September 17. The setting does the rest: Oracle Park grades near an 88 run and 79 home run factor, the stingiest yard in the majors, and tonight's 61 to 63 degree marine air with a light southwesterly is the park at full miser, the kind of night where fly balls leave with ambition and land with regrets. Monday's opener between these same skeleton crews scraped together seven runs total. The honest wrinkle is the bullpens: both worked hard Monday and Anthony Molina rarely sees the sixth, so the late innings fall to depth arms and one loud frame beats a number this low. Even so, run-scarce beats arm-scarce on a night like this, and the under at -113 is the side we want. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB.SEP22.2026TwinsGiantsUnder 7.5 (-113)6 outKsrunsBRADLEYSAMETEAMSGIANTSBATSLASTSTARTMONDAY | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Sep 21 | NFL | Giants +6.5 (-102) at RamsNew York Giants at Los Angeles Rams · Mon, Sep 21, 5:15 PM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisThe Rams open as heavy favorites and their season-long resume earns it, but Monday's version of that offense is missing furniture. Puka Nacua sat Friday and Saturday with a hip issue and is a game-time call trending the wrong way, and Jordan Whittington behind him is doubtful, which leaves Davante Adams and a receiver group McVay may have to check the roster sheet to name. This is the same unit that managed 7 points in the Melbourne opener, the fewest of Matthew Stafford's 75 Rams starts. The front is thinned too: Myles Garrett is on injured reserve, Kamren Kinchens is out, both inside linebackers are banged up, and the fill-in is Aaron Donald, who has not played in two years and carries no announced snap count. That is exactly the wall the Giants want to run into. Cam Skattebo and Najee Harris behind heavy sets, Jaxson Dart efficient in year two off a 23-of-29, three-touchdown Week 1, and a Harbaugh plan that treats every possession like it owes him money. Fewer snaps, tighter margin. The honest worry is New York's corner room, with Paulson Adebo on IR and Deonte Banks unlikely, so Stafford and Adams can still move it. That is why we want the 6.5 at a near-even -102, not the outright. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL·SEP21,2026nyGiantsRamsNew York Giants +6.5 (-102)23/29ptsyearsRAMSOPENERLOWDARTIN WEEK1DONALD SIDELINED | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Sep 20 | MLB | Over 9 (-102) at St. Louis CardinalsWashington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals · Sun, Sep 20, 11:15 AM PT · Line 9AE's analysisThe Nationals and Cardinals close this series Sunday afternoon in St. Louis, and the pitching setup does most of our talking. Washington sends Jake Irvin, a 5.51 ERA, 1.41 WHIP starter who walks hitters like it costs him nothing and rarely sees the sixth; his own club already parked him behind an opener on Sept 13. St. Louis answers with rookie lefty Quinn Mathews, the better arm, but he averages barely five innings and comes with a pitch count. Both starters figure to exit early, and that is where St. Louis is exposed: the Cardinals burned nine relievers for thirteen innings across Friday and Saturday's eleven-inning marathon, and their one true length arm, Cooper Hjerpe, is already cashed out at 74 pitches. Whoever trots in for the middle innings is running on fumes. The first two games here went for 10 and 13 runs, and an 85 degree afternoon does the bats no harm. We hold the whole number nine at -102, so an exact nine refunds rather than sinks us. The honest counter: if Mathews works six-plus on a sleepy getaway day, a quiet 4-3 is very much alive. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP 20,2026NationalsCardinalsOver 9 (-102)5.5113 runsERAarmsCARDSUSEDIRVINSTARTSLASTGAMEHEREIN 2 DAYS | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Sep 20 | NFL | Colts +6 (-107) at ChiefsIndianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs · Sun, Sep 20, 5:20 PM PT · Line 6AE's analysisKansas City won by three touchdowns Monday night, and the market spent the week pricing that beatdown as gospel. Look under the hood, though: the 31-10 win over Denver ran through Kenneth Walker III and his 173 rushing yards, not Patrick Mahomes, whose passing night stayed quiet behind a patched-up line. Now the Chiefs line up again with undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson on Mahomes' blind side. Left tackle Josh Simmons is out a second straight week, safety Chamarri Conner is out again, a backup defensive tackle is unavailable, and Chris Jones spent all week limited by a calf; he is expected to play, just not at full song. Indianapolis shows up about as healthy as anyone gets in Week 2, only a reserve receiver down. Its plan travels: feed Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 98 and scored twice even in the loss, shorten the game, and pocket the points. We will not pretend the Colts are the better team. Their defense got carved by Baltimore for 506 yards and 41 points, and if Steve Spagnuolo's blitzes bury Daniel Jones, this becomes a track meet Indy cannot win. But six points built on one loud week is exactly the kind of number that overcorrects, and at -107 that full cushion looks worth more than the box score suggests. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL·SEP20,2026ColtsChiefsIndianapolis Colts +6 (-107)98 yds2ndweekoutCHIEFS'TAYLOR INLOSSCOLTSINJURIESSIMMONSOUT | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Sep 19 | MLB | Guardians -1.5 (+125) vs AthleticsAthletics Athletics at Cleveland Guardians · Sat, Sep 19, 3:10 PM PT · Line −1.5AE's analysisStart with who the Athletics can't put in the box score. Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom are all done for the year on the 60-day IL, and the group left behind has been the worst offense in baseball over the last two weeks: a 68 wRC+, a .262 on-base mark, and just 17 runs across their last six games. Now they land in Cleveland off a three-time-zone trip to face Tanner Bibee, whose 6-15 record reads like a crime scene while his 1.18 WHIP over 177.1 innings tells you he wasn't the one holding the match. He went 6.2 innings with seven strikeouts at Minnesota on September 13. Jacob Lopez answers with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP, and he's a different pitcher away from home, a 5.40 road ERA against 2.64 at home. Cleveland sits alone in first in the AL Central by a game, with its late-inning arms rested: Hunter Gaddis threw 11 pitches Friday and Cade Smith 14 for the save, while the A's leaned on Seth Johnson and Scott Blewett for 40-plus pitches apiece over three days. The one wrinkle is weather. Rain is in the forecast, and a soggy or shortened night squeezes a two-run margin, which is why we're happy taking the run line at +125 instead of paying up on the moneyline. Play nine, and a rested first-place club against an offense running on fumes is right where we want to be. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLBSEP19,2026AthleticsGuardiansCleveland Guardians -1.5 (+125)4 out5.4017ERArunsA'S LOPEZA'SSLUGGERSA'SIN6GAMESON ROAD | Won | +1.2uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Sep 19 | MLB | Rangers ML (-103) vs Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers · Sat, Sep 19, 4:05 PM PTAE's analysisTexas hands the ball to Cal Quantrill, who has held every opponent to three earned runs or fewer across nine straight starts while running a 1.05 WHIP, and he takes the mound on ten days of rest after back tightness that he and his manager both say is behind him. Toronto counters with Jose Soriano, and this is where the full-season line lies to you: the 3.56 ERA reads fine, but over six starts since the deadline trade to Toronto he owns a 4.36 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP, with outings short enough that the middle innings keep landing on a bullpen full of names you would need the game program to place. The real rotation is on the injured list and the depth got promoted, and the lineup is thin too, with Santander, Barger, Clase and Urias all shelved. Texas is not spotless: Joc Pederson's fractured hand keeps him out a sixth straight game, and if Quantrill's back trims his night the Rangers lean on arms that just soaked up bulk innings. But the leverage relievers are rested, the roof figures to be shut against 91-degree heat, and at a touch over even money at -103 we will take the healthier club and its steadier starter and let Toronto try to win a bullpen game with the understudies. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP19,2026Blue JaysRangersTexas Rangers ML (-103)1.05 WHIP4 outTEXASSTARTERTEXASBLUEJAYSBATSUNDER3ERSTARTERRUN | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Sep 19 | COLLEGE FOOTBALL | Under 58.5 (-105) at Ole MissLSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels · Sat, Sep 19, 4:30 PM PT · Line 58.5AE's analysisTop-ten night games in Oxford get billed as track meets, and 58.5 is priced like the scoreboard operator should stretch first. The tape points the other way, and it starts with the meanest unit on the field. LSU has surrendered 12 points a game through two weeks, held offenses to 2.8 yards a snap and 4 of 27 on third down, and collected 12 sacks doing it. Trinidad Chambliss has been excellent, 561 yards and five touchdowns against one interception, but he ran those numbers up on Louisville and Charlotte, defenses that mostly held the door open. Ole Miss has posted 41 twice; getting there against a front that makes a clean pocket feel like a rumor is a taller order. The series backs it up, with four of the last five meetings staying under and last year's edition topping out at 43 combined points. Fold in a mid-90s afternoon melting into a 6:30 kick and two staffs that know each other cold from Pete Golding's three years coordinating Kiffin's defense, and the shootout math gets harder. LSU's four interceptions cap its own ceiling too. The one that could burn us is Ole Miss's patched secondary handing LSU easy points, but at -105 we will ride the defense and the grind. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. COLLEGEFOOTBALL.SEP19.2026OleLSUMissLSUOleMissUnder58.5 (-105)12 PPG4 of 54 of 27LSUALLOWEDMEETINGSUNDERVSLSU3RDDOWN | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Sep 18 | MLB | Under 8 (-110) at Arizona DiamondbacksNew York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks · Fri, Sep 18, 6:40 PM PT · Line 8AE's analysisStart with the arm that has been the story of Arizona's season: Eduardo Rodriguez takes the ball at 15-6 with a 2.62 ERA and 135 strikeouts, and he draws a Yankees lineup running on fumes. Jazz Chisholm (thumb), Trent Grisham (hamstring) and Giancarlo Stanton (calf) are all on the shelf, and Aaron Judge is nursing a leg issue that pulled him early on September 16, barely a week after a three-month rib absence. That is a lot of thunder either missing or still shaking off rust. On the other side, the Arizona bats have gone quiet in a way that would worry a cardiologist: one run in each of their last four games, two or fewer in seven of the last ten, and no hits with runners in scoring position across that four-game skid. Two cold lineups, one of them staring at a legitimate front-line lefty. The wrinkle worth respecting is Gerrit Cole's September, a 6.48 ERA with seven homers over his last two starts, so a crooked inning is on the table if the D-backs finally wake up. Even so, the number sits at 8, a half run more room than the market has been posting, priced -110. We will take the quiet. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP18,2026YankeesDiamondbacksUnder 8 (-110)2.623outERArunARIZONARODRIGUEZSTARTSYANKEESBATSINLAST4 | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Sep 18 | MLB | Over 8.5 (+102) at Los Angeles AngelsMinnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels · Fri, Sep 18, 6:38 PM PT · Line 8.5AE's analysisStart with the arms, because neither of these guys is fooling anyone right now. Connor Prielipp brings a 5.24 ERA into the start, and Grayson Rodriguez sits around 6.03 with a 1.52 WHIP across 16 starts, the kind of walk-and-homer profile that turns six innings into a long night. Two rotations running on fumes is most of the thesis. The bigger lever is what happens after the starters walk off. Since the deadline additions of Nance, Hoffman and Minter, Minnesota's bullpen ranks 26th in ERA at 5.02, and it has spent September handing leads back in the late innings like it's written into the employee handbook. Give both offenses repeat looks at hittable pitching and let those relievers finish the job, and the run math leans up. One fair caveat: Rodriguez has been sharp his last two turns, one run over 12.2 innings, so he can navigate a night. But he has also allowed three-plus earned in four of his last six and multiple homers in a single game more than once, so the tidy version is the exception. At -102, the price sits right where the pitching does: exposed. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP18,2026TwinsAngelsOver 8.5 (+102)5.24ERA6.03 ERA26th of 30PRIELIPPRODRIGUEZTWINS BULLPENSTARTINGSTARTING | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Sep 17 | MLB | Phillies ML (+118) at MetsPhiladelphia Phillies at New York Mets · Thu, Sep 17, 4:15 PM PTAE's analysisTwo teams passing in opposite directions here. Philadelphia rolls into Citi Field at 84-68, still playing games that matter, while the Mets sit 69-83 and have mostly been reduced to auditioning for next spring. That gap is the spine of this one: one club is chasing seeding in the middle of September, the other is counting down the schedule, and we are getting a plus price on the side that still has something to lose. BetRivers has the Phillies at +118, a touch better than the +116 floating around elsewhere, so we are paid a hair more for the same ticket. Aaron Nola takes the ball after a 104.8 mph comebacker left him with a right knee contusion last time out, but the club has cleared him and he is making his regular turn, so this is a bruise, not a scratch. The honest wrinkle is the arm across from him: Nolan McLean has been the better pitcher this year at 3.24 against Nola's 4.69, which is exactly why Philadelphia is priced as the underdog at all. We will take that trade. A motivated 84-win roster at a plus number, against a lineup with nothing left to chase, is a spot we are glad to buy. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP17,2026PhilliesMetsPhiladelphia Phillies ML (+118)1684-6869-83gamesPHILLIESPHILLIES RECORDMETSRECORDOVER.500 | Won | +1.2uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Sep 17 | WNBA | Under 172.5 (-115) at Portland FirePhoenix Mercury at Portland Fire · Thu, Sep 17, 7:00 PM PT · Line 172.5AE's analysisThursday night in Portland is less a basketball game than a roll call of absences. The Fire will be without their three leading scorers, Carla Leite, Bridget Carleton, and Megan DiLeo, roughly 43 points of nightly offense, plus both point guards and two ACL season enders already in street clothes. Phoenix arrives barely healthier: Kelsey Plum is done for the year and Kahleah Copper, one of the league's leading scorers at 21.3 a night, is a game time call with a groin problem, leaning toward sitting a second straight game. Add the sport's least flattering scheduling quirk, a first game back after a 17 day World Cup layoff, and you have two eliminated teams asking bench units to create offense on legs that have not played competitive basketball in nearly three weeks. The sharps have noticed: Pinnacle has cut this total to 171, yet a couple of US books still hang 172.5, and Under 172.5 at -115 is the one ticket on the friendly side of that number. We make the fair total about 170 and the under roughly 55 percent, a thin but honest edge near two points. The case against is real: both defenses are genuinely bad, Portland allows over 91 a game, and depleted rosters can leak points as easily as they fail to score them. If Copper plays, the lean shrinks fast. That is why this is a lean and not a pound: take the extra point and keep the stake modest. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. WNBA.SEP17.2026MercuryFireUnder 172.5 (-115)43 pts1721.3 pPGdaysLAYOFFFIRESCORERSOUTCOPPERMAYSITBOTHTEAMS | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Sep 16 | MLB | Astros -1.5 (+152) vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals at Houston Astros · Wed, Sep 16, 5:10 PM PT · Line −1.5AE's analysisHouston is playing games that matter and Kansas City is playing out the calendar, and that gap tends to show up on a run line. The Astros sit 76-75 with a one-game division lead and roughly a dozen games left, so every home date at Daikin Park is close to a must-win. The Royals arrive at 66-85, long since eliminated, running a September lineup with all the tension of a Sunday nap. That is the kind of urgency mismatch that can turn a one-run win into a three-run one when the home side is the only team that needs it. The honest wrinkle is our arm. Cristian Javier's full-season line is rough, 2-5 with an ERA around 5.50 and a WHIP north of 1.50, and he draws Daniel Lynch IV, who sits at 3.52, so the season-long pitching edge belongs to the visitors on paper and laying a run and a half asks for a comfortable margin, not a coin-flip finish. What pulls us back to Houston is that Javier has quietly steadied, three runs or fewer in each of his last four starts, long enough for a motivated home lineup to build a cushion. At +152, the price pays us to back the team that actually needs it. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP16,2026KCRoyalsAstrosHouston Astros -1.55（+152）66-85gamemaxROYALSASTROSLEADJAVIERLAST4ELIMINATED | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Sep 15 | MLB | Padres -1.5 (-112) at RockiesSan Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies · Tue, Sep 15, 5:40 PM PT · Line −1.5AE's analysisSan Diego rolls into Coors with an eight-game winning streak and an 82-68 record, and they flat out own this matchup at 9-1 against Colorado this season. The Rockies are the mirror image at 55-95, losers of nine of their last ten. The pitching gap stretches it further. Walker Buehler (8-6, 4.61 ERA) takes the ball for the Padres, while Colorado is turning to Kyle Freeland, who is being activated off the 15-day IL after a neck issue. Before he landed there, Freeland was sitting on a 6.37 ERA and a 4-10 record, and asking a rusty arm to muzzle a lineup this hot at altitude is a rough assignment. San Diego's power also travels well up here: they are 28-13 when they homer twice, Tatis is at .289 with 22 homers, and Coors turns warning-track flyouts into souvenirs. The honest catch is that laying 1.5 at altitude is never cozy, and these two just traded haymakers in an 8-7 game Monday, so a one-run night is live. We can live with that at this number. Our run line is priced -112, a better price than the -121 sitting elsewhere on the same side. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP15,2026PadresRockiesSan Diego Padres -1.5 (-112)9-16.37ERA28-13PADRESVSROCKIES'PADRESROCKIESFREELAND2-HRGAMES | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Sep 15 | MLB | Under 8.5 (-105) at RedsLos Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds · Tue, Sep 15, 3:40 PM PT · Line 8.5AE's analysisStart with the arm that matters. Yoshinobu Yamamoto brings a 2.62 ERA over 172 innings into Cincinnati, and he just did his homework on this exact lineup: one run across seven innings with 10 strikeouts against the Reds last week. Facing him again, the Cincinnati bats are essentially retaking a test they already failed, and that quiets half the scoreboard before first pitch. The other half runs through Rhett Lowder, who has actually tightened up, six earned runs over 17 innings across his last three starts, so this is not a Reds offense we expect to erupt against a pitcher finding his form. One honest caveat belongs here: Great American Ball Park is a launching pad, and a 90-degree afternoon with a light breeze toward the pull side hands fly balls a passport. If the Dodgers tee off on Lowder, this total can clear on their bats alone, so the risk lives on the visitor's side, not the home nine. We still trust the arm doing the heavy lifting to keep the number down. Under 8.5 at -105 is where we land. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP15,2026DodgersRedsUnder 8.5 (-105)2.62 ERA10 k3.18ERAYAMAMOTOYAMAMOTO ONREDSLOWDERLAST3172INNINGS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Sep 15 | MLB | Diamondbacks ML (-143) vs MarlinsMiami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks · Tue, Sep 15, 6:40 PM PTAE's analysisArizona gets our lean tonight, and it starts on the mound. Michael Soroka brings a 3.53 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and 8.61 strikeouts per nine into Chase Field; Janson Junk answers with a 4.54 ERA, more baserunners, and a strikeout rate low enough that Miami's defense should bill him for overtime. A full run of ERA between starters is the kind of gap that actually shows up in box scores. The second layer is the Miami bullpen, which right now is less a bullpen than a group text of unavailable numbers: four relievers on the injured list, the closer day to day with a nerve issue, and the three healthiest arms left have each pitched twice in the last three days on heavy pitch counts. Junk's season says he hands the ball off around the fifth, and that is exactly when this game tilts toward the home dugout. Add a Marlins offense whose contact quality says it has been living about thirteen points of wOBA above its means, and the regression bill is in the mail. The honest caveat: Arizona's pen carries its own injured list scars, and the price has drifted toward the favorite through the day, which is why this is a lean and not a pounding of the table. At -143 where it still hangs, we will take the healthier half of the equation. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB.SEP15.2026MarlinsDiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks ML (-143)3.531.014 outERASOROKA STARTSERASTARTERGAPMIAMIRELIEVERS | Lost | −1.4uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Sep 14 | MLB | Tigers ML (+115) at Blue JaysDetroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays · Mon, Sep 14, 4:07 PM PTAE's analysisThe marquee number here does not quite match the arms throwing it. Detroit sends Troy Melton, who has carried a 2.42 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP across 108 innings this year, the kind of line that keeps traffic off the bases and innings short. Toronto counters with Jose Soriano, a good arm having a good year, but his 3.48 ERA and 1.28 WHIP put more runners on than Melton has been allowing. When the steadier-pitched side of a game is also the plus-money side, we look twice. The Tigers arrive hot too, four straight wins after a broom job in Colorado, so this is not a team wandering into Rogers Centre hoping the roof caves in. The honest caveat: Detroit has been a different animal away from home at 31-43 on the road, and Toronto's lineup is healthy and cooking, with three home runs in a row during their latest blowout. This is a live dog, not a mismatch, and we are treating it that way. Our +115 at Caesars beats the +108 floating around other windows, which is the whole point of taking the better arm at the better price. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP14,2026TigersBlue JaysDetroit Tigers ML (+115)2.421.06ERATIGERSTIGERS'MELTONERASTARTERGAPWIN STREAK | Won | +1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Sep 14 | MLB | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+168) vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks · Mon, Sep 14, 6:40 PM PT · Line −1.5AE's analysisArizona is putting its full lineup back on the field at exactly the right time. Ketel Marte is off the injured list and back in the middle of the order, and Corbin Carroll returned September 11 after a clean MRI on his back, so the Diamondbacks head into this one whole at home in Chase Field. Miami arrives shorthanded where it stings most: leadoff man Xavier Edwards is on the 10-day injured list with a thumb issue, which pulls the plug on the top of a lineup that already leans on him to set the table. Corbin Burnes takes the ball for Arizona and looked the part in his return from Tommy John, three scoreless in his September 8 debut. The honest catch: that debut was 57 pitches, so Burnes is still on a leash and the bullpen will be doing real work, and Sandy Alcantara (13-10, an ERA in the mid-3s across his first ten starts) is no free lunch for the Arizona bats. Winning by two is a real ask, which is exactly why the plus number matters: +168 pays you properly for it. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLBSEP14,2026MarlinsDiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+168)Sep 1110°O runsdaysMARLINS'DIAMONDBACKSBURNESINCARROLLBACKEDWARDSOUTSEPT8DEBUT | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Sep 13 | MLB | Over 7 (+100) at San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants · Sun, Sep 13, 4:20 PM PT · Line 7AE's analysisStart with what this series has already handed us. The first two games at Oracle went 7-5 and 7-6, both clearing seven with the same lineups we get Sunday. Rafael Devers is the loudest bat in the sport at the moment, seven home runs over his last 10 games, and San Francisco has ridden him. On the other side San Diego's offense has finally synced up as October comes into view, Manny Machado at 26 homers and Fernando Tatis Jr. at 21, and they hung seven on the Giants in each of the first two meetings. Logan Webb is 8-8 with a 4.11 ERA, a sinker-and-contact starter who invites the ball into play, exactly the menu a hot lineup orders off. The honest catch: Nick Pivetta has been the best version of himself, a 3.43 ERA with better than 11 strikeouts per nine, and Oracle's swirling air can send the odd fly ball to the warning track to die. But two straight shootouts in this park, both lineups awake, is a lot to argue against. We landed the over at even money, a better price than the juice most shops are charging. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP13,2026PadresGiantsOver 7 (+100)12-13 runs7 HRS4.11 ERABOTHSERIESDEVERSLAST10WEBBSTARTSGAMES | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Sep 13 | MLB | Over 6.5 (-110) at Chicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs · Sun, Sep 13, 11:20 AM PT · Line 6.5AE's analysisStart with the bats that matter most: the Cubs lead the majors in runs and home runs this season, sitting atop OBP, slugging and OPS+ as one of the loudest offenses in franchise history, and they get to host this one. That is the engine of an Over 6.5. Matthew Boyd takes the ball for Chicago having given up three or more runs in four of his last five starts, with a home ERA up around 5.40, so the Pirates get their looks too. Then the relief math: over the last five games Pittsburgh's bullpen has posted a 6.52 ERA, and Chicago's own pen has been living dangerously for weeks. Both dugouts have combined for roughly 9.7 runs per game across their last five, which makes a total of 6.5 look like it showed up underdressed. One honest note: Bubba Chandler has been quietly excellent since July, around a 2.36 ERA in that stretch, and the Pirates' bats have gone cold during a long skid, so if he carries that form deep this can stay low. We still like the number. Over 6.5 at -110 is a fair price for a game this loud. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP13,2026UBSPiratesCubsOver 6.5 (-110)4 of 56.52ERA9.7runsBOYD 3+PIRATESCOMBINEDLAST5RUNSALLOWEDPENLAST5 | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Sep 13 | NFL | Panthers +3 (+100) vs Chicago BearsChicago Bears at Carolina Panthers · Sun, Sep 13, 10:00 AM PT · Line 3AE's analysisCaleb Williams may open a road game protecting his own blind side, because Chicago's left tackle just met a scalpel. Carolina, meanwhile, shows up healthy with basically a clean injury report. The line crept to a full field goal, so +3 turns a late backdoor score into a push our way. We'll take the key number at even money and let the math work. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL.SEP13,2026BearsPanthersPanthers +3 (+100)-2.5→-3LimitednameLINE MOVEDPANTHERSFINALODUNZETO A FULLFGINJURYREPORTALL WEEK | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Sep 12 | COLLEGE FOOTBALL | Buckeyes ML (+108) at LonghornsOhio State Buckeyes at Texas Longhorns · Sat, Sep 12, 4:30 PM PTAE's analysisOhio State Buckeyes ML at +108: our 50.0 percent vs 48.1 implied, edge 1.9 points, the only board market above the 1 point floor. Drivers: verified 4.6 point SP+ gap that survives a 2.5 point Austin adjustment, two verified head to head wins, cleaner week 1 defensive profile (165 vs 349 yards allowed), and Texas losing RB Derrek Cooper. Primary risk: OSU's number one defense rating is a projection over eight new starters. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. COLLEGEFOOTBALL·2026-09-12DHIOSATEOhio StateTexasOhio State Buckeyes ML (+108)1652-0349yardsyardsBUCKEYESVSBUCKEYESLONGHORNSLONGHORNSALLOWEDWEEK1ALLOWEDWEEK1 | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Sep 12 | MLB | Over 8.5 (+100) at Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers · Sat, Sep 12, 4:10 PM PT · Line 8.5AE's analysisOver 8.5 at +100. We estimate 51.5 percent vs 50.0 implied, a 1.5 point edge. Drivers: Singer's verified 5.03 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 1.66 HR/9 against a Brewers lineup that hung 20 on Friday, a taxed Reds middle relief corps (Mey 58P, Garcia 44P in 3d), and Drohan's 6 ER in 4 IP vs these Reds on Sept 4. Primary risk: Drohan's 3.61 FIP plays to form and a rested post-clinch Milwaukee lineup suppresses runs. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·2026-09-12RedsBrewersOver 8.5 (+100)20 runs5.039.1 runsERAREDS'SINGERBREWERSFRIDAYTOTALPROJECTED | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Sep 11 | MLB | Under 8.5 (-110) at Boston Red SoxKansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox · Fri, Sep 11, 4:10 PM PT · Line 8.5AE's analysisThe spine here is Sonny Gray. He carries a 2.69 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP over 150.2 innings this season, and he has surrendered more than three runs just four times across 26 outings. That is not a pitcher who invites a track meet. On the other side sits a Kansas City lineup averaging 3.96 runs a game, second worst in the majors with runners in scoring position at a .652 OPS, a group at 65-82 that has spent September quietly folding the laundry on a lost season. The Royals counter with Seth Lugo, whose 5.04 ERA and 1.42 WHIP mean the runs risk is real, but the offense behind him is the least of Fenway's worries: this is a club that has scored barely three runs a game through its recent skid. Night baseball in the low 70s with no wind bullying balls over the Monster keeps the ceiling honest. One arm is dealing, one lineup keeps swinging at ghosts, and the math tends to stay south. We will lay the standard -110 on the Under 8.5. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP11,2026KCRoyalsRed SoxUnder 8.5 (-110).652oPs2.693.96 runsERAROYALSINGRAY26STARTSROYALSPERGAMESCORINGSPOTS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Sep 11 | MLB | Brewers -1.5 (+132) vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers · Fri, Sep 11, 4:40 PM PT · Line −1.5AE's analysisMilwaukee sits at 91-56 with the best record in baseball entering this series, and the pitching gap here is not subtle. The Brewers rank second in the majors with a 3.56 team ERA, their bullpen a tidy 3.46, while Cincinnati checks in 27th at 4.73. The Reds hand the ball to lefty Andrew Abbott, who is carrying a career-worst 4.43 ERA over 29 starts, opposite Dustin May at American Family Field where Milwaukee has spent all year making good lineups look ordinary. This is a run-prevention machine hosting an offense that runs hot only in flashes. One honest caveat: the Reds took two of three in Cincinnati last week, including a 12-8 shootout, and Elly De La Cruz is on a five-game home-run tear, so the swing-and-miss ceiling on this Reds lineup is real when he is cooking. But run differential and depth win nine-inning games, and Milwaukee has both by a wide margin, with a bullpen built to keep late leads intact rather than hand them back. Laying the run and a half costs a little juice at plus-132, which is a fair price to bet the better team by two. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP11,2026RedsBrewersBrewers -1.5 (+132)3.56 ERA91-564.43EERABREWERSBREWERSREDS'ABBOTTBESTRECORDPITCHING2ND29STARTS | Won | +1.3uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Sep 11 | MLB | Under 7.5 (-108) at Atlanta BravesPhiladelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves · Fri, Sep 11, 4:15 PM PT · Line 7.5AE's analysisChris Sale has spent this season treating opposing lineups like a toll booth treats exact change: brief, efficient, no small talk. A 2.10 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, strikeouts by the bushel, and Atlanta has protected him with extra rest nearly all year, a plan the schedule cooperates with again tonight. The lineup he works in front of is the quieter story: this Braves offense gets on base at a bottom third clip, and the underlying contact numbers say that is exactly who they are, no dormant breakout waiting in the tunnel. Aaron Nola's season line looks rough, but he has been sturdier lately and just held this same Atlanta group to a single run a week ago. Now add the setting: a neutral park and a forecast that is less chance of showers and more bring a kayak, with steady rain expected from first pitch. Wet baseballs, slick grips, and a lineup allergic to walks is not a recipe for a crooked number derby. The honest counterargument is the bullpens: both are somewhere between tired and held together with duct tape, and late leaks are how quiet games turn loud. We accept that risk at the size of a lean. These clubs needed four games to scrape together 23 runs last week, one of which ended 1 to 0. Under 7.5 at -108 is the play. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP11,2026PhilliesBravesUnder 7.5 (-108)96% rain2.10ERArunFORECASTSALETHISSEASONNOLAHELD BRAVESAT START | Lost | −1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Sep 9 | MLB | Orioles +1.5 (-162) vs GuardiansCleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles · Wed, Sep 9, 3:35 PM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisThis one sets up as a coin flip, which is exactly the weather the run line was built for. The moneyline sits near pick'em, with Baltimore and Cleveland priced within a few cents of each other, so we are looking at a game that projects to live and die by a single run. Take the home team, add a run and a half, and you cover every Orioles win plus every one-run loss, which is a wide net in a matchup this even. Foster Griffin (15-4, 3.26 ERA) is the better arm on paper, but Shane Baz's 5-15 record is a con artist: his 3.91 ERA says he keeps games within reach, and win-loss for a pitcher is mostly a receipt for what the offense did while he wasn't looking. One thing we will not paper over: Gunnar Henderson is day-to-day with a knee he fouled a ball off Tuesday, and Blaze Alexander is nursing back spasms, so the lineup may be short a couple of regulars. That stings on a moneyline more than it does here, where the run and a half absorbs a quiet night. And the number does the rest: +1.5 at -162 where the market wants -181 for the same side, the cheaper toll for the same bridge. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP09,2026GuardiansOriolesBaltimore Orioles +1.5 (-162)+1.53.91ERArunCOVERSABAZKEEPSCLOSESHOULD DECIDEITONE-RUNLOSS | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Sep 9 | MLS | Under 3.5 (-112) vs LA GalaxyLA Galaxy at Vancouver Whitecaps · Wed, Sep 9, 7:30 PM PT · Line 3.5AE's analysisThe spine here is simple: one of these teams can barely score. LA Galaxy have managed four goals across their last five matches (0-0 vs Dallas, 0-1 at Houston, 1-0 over San Jose, 2-2 at Montreal, 1-3 at San Diego), and the San Diego trip aside, the road version has been especially quiet. That is what happens when Riqui Puig watches the entire 2026 season in a knee brace after a second ACL surgery. Marco Reus is doing what he can with five goals in 22 games, but this attack has been running on fumes for months and it packs even lighter when it leaves home. For the Over to land, Vancouver basically has to do the scoring for both sides, all four goals of it, against a Galaxy side that shows up empty-handed. The tidy scripts, a 2-0, a 2-1, a 3-0, all sit comfortably under the number. The honest caution: Vancouver at home is not shy. Brian White (13 goals) and Thomas Muller (7) have hung four on people at BC Place, and a back line missing Edier Ocampo and Ranko Veselinovic could open extra chances. We will take our chances on the Galaxy staying quiet. Under 3.5 at -112. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLS.SEP09,2026LAVANCOUVERWHITECAPSFCGALAXYGalaxyVancouverUnder 3.5 (-112)20264 of 5goalsPUIG OUTLASCOREDLAINLAST5ALL YEAR1ORFEWER | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Sep 9 | MLB | Padres -1.5 (+126) vs NationalsWashington Nationals at San Diego Padres · Wed, Sep 9, 1:10 PM PT · Line −1.5AE's analysisSan Diego at home has been the sturdy part of this team's season: 45-29 at Petco through Tuesday, and they get Walker Buehler in the kind of groove that makes a rotation spot feel settled. Nine straight starts of three runs or fewer, 16 earned across 47.1 innings in that stretch, and the Padres have gone 7-2 when he takes the ball. Across from him is Jackson Kent, a rookie lefty called up in mid-August carrying a 5.55 ERA and a 17-to-15 strikeout-to-walk line through his first 19.1 big-league innings. That is command still looking for the map, against a lineup half a game inside a wild card scramble and not inclined to be polite about it. One honest caveat: both games of this series so far were one-run finishes, and Petco does not hand out runs, so the run line asks San Diego to win by two rather than simply win. We think the pitching gap is wide enough to clear that bar. The price sits at +126, and we're comfortable standing there. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP09,2026NationalsPadresSan Diego Padres -1.5 (+126)16ER1545-29walksPADRES'BUEHLERNATIONALS'PADRESATPETCO47INNINGSKENT19INNINGS | Won | +1.3uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Sep 9 | NFL | Patriots +3 (+105) at Seattle SeahawksNew England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks · Wed, Sep 9, 5:20 PM PT · Line 3AE's analysisSeattle raises the banner tonight; the problem is how much of the team that earned it stays in street clothes. Kenneth Walker ran for 135 yards on New England in Super Bowl LX, and he is a Chief now. Play caller Klint Kubiak left to coach the Raiders, RB2 Zach Charbonnet is out, so rookie Jadarian Price debuts behind a brand new coordinator against a Patriots front that just got Christian Barmore off the injury report. The secondary is thinner still: Riq Woolen left, his replacement Terrion Arnold sits on the commissioner's exempt list, starting safety Ty Okada is out, and Nick Emmanwori is a game time call the Seattle beat expects to tip out. Across from that, Drake Maye's Patriots graded at +8.78 EPA per game last season, +9.63 through the air, a full tier above Seattle's +1.85, then armed him with A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, and Alijah Vera-Tucker. The number opened 3.5 in May and has leaked to 3. To be clear, we are making a lineup read here, not claiming a price edge. Patriots +3, because championship rings do not play safety. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. NFL·SEP09,2026PatriotsSeahawksPatriots +3 (+105)gone4 outMAYE'SNEWRBWALKER,PLAYSEAHAWKSDBSWEAPONSCALLER KUBIAK | Push | 0.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Sep 8 | MLB | Under 9.5 (-102) at AthleticsToronto Blue Jays at Athletics Athletics · Tue, Sep 8, 6:40 PM PT · Line 9.5AE's analysisStart with the arm we trust. José Soriano takes the ball for Toronto sitting in the 90th percentile for groundball rate, and a sinkerballer who keeps everything on the dirt is exactly the profile that neutralizes a yard like this. Sutter Health Park is a legitimate launching spot, roughly ten runs a game in 2025, but the way you beat it is by never letting the ball into the air, and that is Soriano's entire operating system. The weather plays along: a clear Sacramento evening cooling into the upper 50s with light, variable winds, nothing to usher a ball over the wall. A cool, still night quietly turns that bandbox back into a ballpark. The honest catch: Oakland hands the ball to Jack Perkins, who owns an 8.17 ERA as a starter and has been especially combustible at home, and a Blue Jays lineup this deep can build a crooked number in a hurry. So the risk lives entirely on Toronto's side of the board. We trust Soriano to keep the A's quiet and the calm air to cap the ceiling. At 9.5, our under at -102 is priced better than the -113 sitting elsewhere. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP08,2026Blue JaysAthleticsUnder 9.5 (-102)90th9.5%ile50s°FSORIANOTOTAL TOSACRAMENTO NIGHTGROUNDERSSTAYUNDER | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Sep 8 | MLB | Mets ML (+120) at MarlinsNew York Mets at Miami Marlins · Tue, Sep 8, 3:40 PM PTAE's analysisThe Marlins have spent the summer cashing checks their bats never wrote. Miami is slugging .399 against contact quality that says .374, and the expected numbers underneath run twelve points light of the results. New York is the mirror image: a lineup that has been better than its box scores all year, now whole again with Juan Soto back from a calf strain and Mark Vientos returning with a homer in his first game back. Meanwhile the Miami bullpen is running a skeleton crew. Pete Fairbanks and Anthony Bender are on the shelf, three more relievers sit on the 60-day, and the arms left standing just logged heavy pitch counts over the weekend. Sandy Alcantara is the honest case for the home side, a workhorse with a real edge on Sean Manaea, and in this park a good sinkerballer can make an evening feel very short. That is why this is a lean and not a table-pound. But when the choice is a lineup owed results against a lineup living on borrowed ones, with the late innings guarded by whoever still has a functioning arm, we will take the road team. Plus money on the Mets, best found at +120, is the right side of this one. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP08,2026MetsMarlinsNew York Mets ML (+120)5 out2 bats1 HRMARLINSMETS'BACKFORMETSRELIEVERSVIENTOS BACK | Won | +1.2uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Sep 7 | MLB | Brewers +1.5 (-192) vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers · Mon, Sep 7, 11:10 AM PT · Line 1.5AE's analysisMilwaukee is the better team in this building, and the run line is where that shows up without any squinting. The Brewers sit 88-56, first in the NL Central with a seven-game cushion, and they open as the home favorite at roughly -126 on the moneyline. When a club is already favored to win the game outright, spotting them a run and a half means the only way this loses is a multi-run defeat, and first-place teams rarely get run out of their own yard. Robert Gasser (4.57 ERA) is not the reason we like it, and yes, Milwaukee has cooled to 5-5 over its last ten. But +1.5 is built for exactly these choppy stretches: a one-run loss still cashes, and so does any win. Matthew Boyd (8-3, 4.05) gives Chicago a steady arm, which nudges this toward the tight, one-swing game the run line eats for breakfast. The price is the honest part: -192 means you are paying for the insurance rather than lifting it off the shelf. We are fine with that. First place, home, favored, plus a run and a half is the quiet kind of spot that pays its rent. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB .SEP 07.2026UBSCubsBrewersBrewers +1.5 (-192)1st88-56gamesBREWERSBREWERSRECORDBREWERSLEADNLINCENTRAL | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Sep 7 | MLB | Nationals ML (+180) at PadresWashington Nationals at San Diego Padres · Mon, Sep 7, 2:10 PM PTAE's analysisStart with the mound. San Diego hands the ball to Nick Pivetta, making his first start back from a 60-day elbow absence. First outings off a long injured-list stint usually come with a governor on them: fewer pitches, a shorter leash, a manager counting every throw. That pushes the middle innings onto a Padres bullpen already missing Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada, two of its higher-leverage arms. Meanwhile the San Diego bats have gone cold, hitting .216 over the last ten during a 4-6 slide. Washington is no juggernaut, but C.J. Abrams brings real thump, 30 homers and 59 extra-base hits, and this lineup can do damage if it reaches that thinned-out relief corps early. We will be honest about the catch: Jake Irvin (2-8, 5.57) has not been a brick wall, so this is not a pitching duel. It is a bet on a rusty starter, a short bullpen, and a chilly home lineup all showing up the same afternoon. At +180 on a live dog, we let the price close it out. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP07,2026NationalsPadresWashington Nationals ML (+180)602outdays.216 AvGPADRES'PADRESRELIEVERSPADRESLAST10PIVETTA HURT | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Mon, Sep 7 | MLB | Guardians ML (+115) at OriolesCleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles · Mon, Sep 7, 10:35 AM PTAE's analysisCleveland walks into Camden Yards as the better team carrying the underdog label, and we are happy to accept the discount. The Guardians are 73-71 and still chasing a division spot; the Orioles are 69-75, buried in the AL East, and have dropped four of their last ten while hitting .193 as a lineup. Cleveland already holds this season series 3-1. Baltimore has been a middling 34-38 at home, while Cleveland is a comfortable 37-32 on the road, so the home ballpark is less of a fortress than the standings imply. The real soft spot is Baltimore's late innings. Both relievers they lined up to close games, Felix Bautista and Ryan Helsley, are parked on the 60-day IL, with Helsley not having thrown a big-league pitch since June 27. Any lead the Orioles carry into the eighth has to survive a bullpen running on fumes and duct tape. One honest flag: Joey Cantillo issues his share of walks (1.48 WHIP) and rarely works past the fifth, so Cleveland's own relief gets busy early. We can live with that trade. At +115, we are getting a longer price on the better roster than the rest of the market is offering. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB . SEP 07.2026GuardiansOriolesCleveland Guardians ML（+115）3-12 out.193GUARDIANSORIOLESCLOSERSORIOLESLAST10SERIESLEAD | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Sep 6 | MLB | Nationals ML (+180) at DodgersWashington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers · Sun, Sep 6, 7:10 PM PTAE's analysisThe Dodgers are limping into this one, not marching. They've gone 27-27 since July 1 and dropped six of their last nine, so this "get-right" series is aspirational at best. Shohei Ohtani has sat three straight games through Saturday with biceps, neck and knee issues, and a 7:11 local start on getaway Sunday is exactly the spot where banged-up regulars find the bench. The bullpen is thinner too, with Edwin Diaz (neck) and Roki Sasaki (blister) both on the shelf. On the mound, Los Angeles sends Justin Wrobleski, who has not made a real start since August 15 and has thrown all of two relief innings since. Asking him to turn a lineup over three times is asking a lot of an arm that's been stretched about as far as a rubber band left in a drawer. Meanwhile Andrew Alvarez has quietly stacked a 2.45 ERA across six August starts and 33 innings. One honest note: Roberts left the door open for Ohtani to rejoin the lineup Sunday, so glance at the card before first pitch. At +180, a live dog against a wobbling favorite is our kind of number. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB.SEP06.2026NationalsDodgersWashington Nationals ML (+180)27-27gamesDODGERSWROBLESKISINCEOHTANI SATSINCEJULYAUGINNINGS | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sun, Sep 6 | MLB | Under 7 (-114) at San Diego PadresNew York Yankees at San Diego Padres · Sun, Sep 6, 1:10 PM PT · Line 7AE's analysisTwo things carry this Under, and both stand on the mound. Gerrit Cole has given up three earned runs or fewer in each of his last 10 starts, a 2.66 ERA over that stretch, and Michael King has turned in quality starts in nine of his last 11 while trimming his ERA to 3.11, capped by a recent 13-inning scoreless run. Neither guy is handing out crooked innings right now. Then there is the room. Petco Park under an afternoon marine layer is where fly balls go to file for unemployment: cool, dense, cloudy air with a west breeze off the bay pushing toward right-center, and the Sept. 6 forecast is exactly that, extensive cloud cover and temperatures below the seasonal average, with no heat to help the ball carry. The Yankees do this without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, both parked on the 60-day IL, which drains a lot of the thunder from that lineup against a starter missing bats. The market sits on 7 too, so we are not reaching for the number. Under 7 at -114 is the price to lay. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP06,2026YankeesPadresUnder 7 (-114)13 inn2.66ERA2outCOLELAST10KINGSCORELESSYANKEESSLUGGERS | Push | 0.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Sat, Sep 5 | MLB | Padres -1.5 (+188) vs YankeesNew York Yankees at San Diego Padres · Sat, Sep 5, 4:15 PM PT · Line −1.5AE's analysisSan Diego -1.5 asks the Padres to win by a couple, and the biggest reason to trust that is who is not in the visiting batter's box. Aaron Judge (rib) and Giancarlo Stanton (calf) are both on the 60-day IL, which means the Yankees walk into Petco without the two bats that turn a close game into a laugher. Strip that thunder out and New York's lineup gets a lot easier to keep in the yard. Robbie Ray has been a different pitcher at home this season, a 2.22 ERA in his own park against 4.06 on the road, and his home dates now come at Petco, where fly balls tend to die of natural causes. The honest catch: the Yankees are the better team on paper, and a run line in a low-scoring park means one quiet inning can leave you a run short. We are not pretending that away. But with New York's power drained and Ray at home, a two-run San Diego night is very live, and FanDuel's +188 pays like it doubts every word of that. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP05,2026YankeesPadresSan Diego Padres -1.5 (+188)2 out60day60daysYANKEESSLUGGERSJUDGEOUTSTANTON OUT | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Fri, Sep 4 | MLB | Orioles ML (+105) vs Red SoxBoston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles · Fri, Sep 4, 4:05 PM PTAE's analysisAnchor: Pinnacle no-vig BAL 0.4906 / BOS 0.5094; engine conversions to +104/-104 recompute correctly. Board best: BAL +105 Caesars (48.78), BOS -115 (53.49), BAL +1.5 -165 BetRivers (62.26), BOS -1.5 +145 Fanatics (40.82), O8 -114 FD (53.27), U8 -103 DK (50.74), 8.5 alts at BetRivers. Feeds verify: xwOBA gap (BAL .324/.315 actual vs BOS .312/.321), Boston pen load (Bello 69P, Olds 53P) vs light Baltimore, both IL lists, Johnson HP, 85F calm, 105 HR park. Audit rulings honored: Rafaela out, Baltimore live for the wild card, Boston's 8-plus-runs streak ended Sept 3. The Suarez fade (5.01 ERA last 7, no six-inning start in eight) is one research base echoed five times, so its corroborative weight is discounted, but nothing in the feeds contradicts it. I set BAL 50.5% vs 49.06 fair: up for verified regression, pen asymmetry, Rafaela and Suarez form; held down by Baltimore's gutted late pen and Boston's superior roster. Edge: 50.50 - 48.78 = 1.72 pts, the only market above the 1-point floor; all others negative per scan. All five engines' header price of 108 conflicts with their own +105 text; cosmetic, board governs. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB.SEP04.2026Red SoxOriolesBaltimoreOriolesML（+105）5.01ERAToutarmsREDSOX'RED SOXRED SOX'RAFAELASUAREZLAST7PENTAXED | Lost | −1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Thu, Sep 3 | MLB | Under 8.5 (-105) at Chicago CubsMilwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs · Thu, Sep 3, 4:15 PM PT · Line 8.5AE's analysisThe reason to look under here has a name: Logan Henderson. Milwaukee's righty is carrying a 2.48 ERA with a WHIP under 1.00 and better than a strikeout per inning this season, the kind of line that turns a lineup's at-bats into quick walks back to the dugout. He misses bats and he does not hand out free passes, 86 strikeouts against 14 walks on the year, which is how you keep a crooked number off the board even in a hitter's yard. Kevin Gausman's ERA sits north of 4.50, but the splitter still plays, and a swing-and-miss arm on the other side keeps this from becoming a track meet by default. Now the part we will not paper over: the wind is forecast out toward right and left-center at Wrigley on a warm afternoon, and these Cubs lead the majors in home runs. That is a real lever for the over, and Milwaukee's bats have not been napping at Wrigley lately either. We are not calling it clean. We think Henderson's form is the heavier weight on the scale, and at -105 the under is priced right where we want it. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP03,2026UBSBrewersCubsUnder 8.5 (-105)2.48 ERA86-14<1.00WHIPBREWERS'HENDERSONHENDERSONK TO WALKSHENDERSONONYEAR | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Sep 2 | MLB | Yankees ML (-157) at AngelsNew York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels · Wed, Sep 2, 6:38 PM PTAE's analysisStart with the arm. Cam Schlittler has quietly become the best story in the Yankees rotation, carrying a 2.09 ERA with 201 strikeouts and a 12-6 record into Anaheim, and he draws an Angels club that has dropped eight of its last nine at home. That is the matchup we want: a pitcher who misses bats against a lineup that looks like it is already checking October tee times. New York sits at 79-60, the Angels are buried at 53-86, and the Yankees have taken six of their last seven trips to this park. Reid Detmers is the one wrinkle worth naming honestly. He has owned these Yankees in a small career sample, so a quiet night from the New York bats is not impossible. But Detmers has spent 2026 pitching fine and getting almost nothing behind him, and one flattering history note does not close the season-long gap between these two rosters. On price, our -157 is a friendlier number than the -171 floating around elsewhere, so we lay less to back the same side. Good pitcher, struggling opponent, better number. We will take the Yankees. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP02,2026YankeesAngelsNew York Yankees ML (-157)8of 92.096 of 7ERAANGELSLOSTSCHLITTLERYANKEESTHIS YEARAT HOMEINANAHEIM | Won | +1.0uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Wed, Sep 2 | MLB | Mariners ML (+120) at Red SoxSeattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox · Wed, Sep 2, 1:10 PM PTAE's analysisOur eyes go straight to the fifth inning of this one. Patrick Sandoval has been a traffic generator all summer, nearly two baserunners an inning since coming back from elbow surgery, and he rarely sees the sixth. That would be survivable if Boston's bullpen were whole, but it is not: three relievers sit on the injured list, and the three arms who have carried the load just threw a combined 137 pitches over the last three days. On a day game after a night game at Fenway, where the scoreboard runs hot, somebody has to cover those middle innings, and the options are getting thin enough to see through. Seattle counters with Bryce Miller, who has spent the season keeping runners off the bases, and a lineup whose contact quality has been better than its results all year, the kind of gap that tends to settle up eventually. Boston's order is the mirror image: outperforming its underlying numbers while missing six regulars, with the catcher nursing an elbow on top. This is not a blowout call, Boston at home is never free, and Miller has to hold up his end. But a clean starter against a short one, backed by the fresher bullpen against the gassed one, tilts a close game toward the visitors. At plus money, Seattle is our side, a lean rather than a pound. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB·SEP02,2026MarinersRed SoxSeattle Mariners ML (+120)3out1.096 outWHIPRED SOXMARINERS'MILLERREDSOXREGULARSRELIEVERS | Won | +1.2uTo win 1u | Post → |
| Tue, Sep 1 | MLB | White Sox ML (+110) at AstrosChicago White Sox at Houston Astros · Tue, Sep 1, 5:10 PM PTAE's analysisThis one starts and mostly ends on the mound. Sean Burke has been Chicago's steadiest arm all season: 149 innings, an ERA in the low threes, and a strikeout an inning. Houston answers with Ronel Blanco, four starts into an elbow surgery comeback, and the early returns are rough: an ERA north of seven, baserunners everywhere, and outings that keep ending before the fifth inning does. Short starts matter here because Cristian Javier just emptied 78 pitches out of Houston's bullpen on Sunday, so the bridge innings are thinner than usual. Full disclosure: Chicago's relievers worked just as hard this weekend and the Sox are down both catchers, so this is less a fatigue mismatch than two tired teams leaning on their starters, which is exactly the comparison Chicago wins. Houston is also missing Carlos Correa, and Jeremy Pena is nursing a banged-up hand. Blanco's arm made it back from surgery; his command is still in baggage claim. With the roof likely closed and the park playing fair, we like the better starter and the cleaner path to 27 outs. Chicago at a price barely past pick'em is a lean, and we are treating it like one: real, but modest. Text read from the post's image (machine-read)Read by software from the image; it can misread characters. The post is the record. MLB . SEP 01.2026White SoxAstrosChicago White Sox ML(+110)787+ ERAASTROSPENASTROSASTROS'BLANCOPITCHESINFIELD HURT | Won | +1.1uTo win 1u | Post → |