@handle · 9:41 AM
Team A −3 (−110) 2u.
Posted 9:41:07 AM PTCaptured 9:43:12 AM PT
Capture
A record is only as good as the posts behind it, so we keep the evidence before we judge it.
- Kept as posted. Text, post time and capture time. Nothing is retyped.
- Counted nowhere: reposts, posts that aren’t picks, posts we can’t read yet. They’re kept, not scored.
- Never deleted. If a post disappears, the pick stays, marked “no longer public”.
Price
Units depend on odds. We use the price the bettor was offered, and say so when we had to fill one in.
- Price in the post?YesPosted — graded at that price
- No price. A sportsbook line near the post time?YesPrevailing line † — that book’s price
- Neither. A standard main-line spread or total?YesAssumed −110 *
- Anything else—Not priced — counts in the record, not in units or ROI
Grade
Every pick ends in one of four outcomes. Only wins and losses decide win %.
WinUnits won at the price
LossStake lost
PushStake returned; not in win %
VoidCancelled, or posted after the start
Late = void. A pick posted after its game started can’t be a prediction, so it never counts, and the post is flagged.
Units & ROI
Win % says how often. Units say how much. Only the second pays.
Win %WinsWins + Losses
ROIUnits wonUnits riskedgraded, priced picks only
| Pick | Odds | To win 1u (the default) | Risk 1u | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | Loses | Wins | Loses | ||
| Favorite | −150 | +1.00u | −1.50u | +0.67u | −1.00u |
| Standard spread | −110 | +1.00u | −1.10u | +0.91u | −1.00u |
| Underdog | +150 | +1.50u | −1.00u | +1.50u | −1.00u |
To win 1u (the default): favorites bet to win 1u; underdogs and even money risk 1u. Risk 1u: every pick risks 1u. Unstated stakes count as 1u. W-L-P and Win % are the same under both; the Staking menu on the tracker switches between them. A 70% win rate on heavy favorites can still lose money, which is why units and ROI sit beside win %.
Line value
Results are noisy for months. Beating the closing price is the earliest sign a bettor knows something the market didn’t yet.
BeatBetter than the close
MatchedWithin half a point (or 0.5 pp)
MissedWorse than the close
Spreads and totals are measured in points; moneylines in no-vig probability points (pp). The two are never mixed. Props read n/a and count in no line value total. The close comes from a named sportsbook. Line value shows price movement; it is not proof of skill.
Label
A number without its sample size misleads. Labels say when a figure is thin or when behavior deserves a second look.
- Low sample
- Under 10 priced picks (ROI, units), 10 graded (win %) or 10 closes (beat close %). Judged per stat; muted and sorted last.
- Unranked
- Fewer than 10 graded picks in the range. Listed below a divider, with no position number.
- ✓ None seen▲ Some■ Deletes losses… Low data
- Deletions: posts removed after we captured them, and whether the removed picks were mostly losers.
- ▲ Some■ Frequent
- Late posts: picks posted after the start. Frequent means 3 or more and 5% or more of public picks in the season.
- ▲ Some■ Frequent
- Affiliate links: share of scanned posts carrying promo codes, sportsbook referrals or paid VIP sales.
- L10
- The last ten won or lost picks by game time. Pushes don’t count.
Every label and threshold is the tracker’s own. This site sets none.
Date ranges
A Sunday pick posted on Saturday belongs to Sunday. Ranges follow the game, not the post.
TodayYesterdayThis week7d30dThis monthLast monthSeasonCustom
All ranges use the game date in Pacific time.
Trending
Where several tracked influencers land on the same side before a game. It is opinion, not advice.
+1per influencer on the side
+0 to +1for a strong ROI record (−0.5 for a weak one; 10+ graded, ROI shrunk toward 0)
×½for parlay legs
Lines are shown only as posted, with the time. No sportsbook links, no calls to action. “Opposite” counts influencers on the other side.
Prediction markets
What tracked Polymarket wallets held before each game started. It shows where money sits, not a pick, and it never goes on the sportsbook board.
- Before tip
- Each wallet’s last positions before the game started, fees included. Positions filled after the start are void.
- Hedged and real bet
- Money on both sides of the exact same line cancels out: its result is locked before the game. What is left is the real bet. Maps and bars hatch the hedged share; the solid part is the real bet.
- Sides and totals
- Side money (moneyline and spread) and totals money (over and under) are two separate leans, never one “side of the game”. “UTAH 61% sides” means 61% of the side money left after hedges backs UTAH.
- Style
- Two-sided: holds both sides of a game. Directional: holds one side. Mixed: has both kinds of games. Two-sided games have no win-loss record.
- Records
- The official grade is settled profit and return on stake, fees included, from the last pregame position, never a win-loss record. A wallet’s record shows after 10 settled games; before that it reads “New · 0 of 10 settled” or “N of 10 settled, too few”.
- Kalshi crowd
- Anonymous money on Kalshi, never a trader record: no name, wallet or grade. It covers only the biggest overlapping moneyline games, has no spreads or totals, and each market’s read is capped at its latest 1,000 trades, so the windows differ from game to game. Context, not a signal to follow.
- Counts may be low
- Polymarket shows at most 1,000 open positions per wallet. A wallet that hits the cap is marked ≥: its counts are a floor.
- Data under review
- A game whose recorded last look falls after its start is marked “Data under review” and isn’t graded until it’s resolved.
- Influencers Preview
- Whether tracked influencers back the same side is still being linked. Until then, a game on both pages links across to Trending.
The standing rules
- Kalshi flow is anonymous, not a trader record
- Two-sided games have no W-L
- Official grade is settled profit and ROI, fees included, from the last pregame position
- Prediction markets stay off the sportsbook board
- Positions filled after game start are void
Every figure on the Markets page is the export’s own; the site adds nothing up. Figures still to come read “Not yet available”. Open Prediction markets →
What keeps it honest
Four commitments, so a record can be checked rather than taken on faith.
One source
Every pick is read as-is from the tracker’s output, with the time of the snapshot. The tracker dashboard adds up the selection you choose from those picks, and every build checks those totals against the tracker’s own. Daily snapshots are never edited.
Known limits
Public posts only: no private groups, DMs, paid channels, or posts deleted before capture. A short record says little, whatever its numbers.
Corrections
Every change to a published record is logged: date, record, what changed and why.
The corrections log →